“In the United States, demographers predict that as many as half of today’s 5-year-olds can expect to live to the age of 100,” said The New Map of Life, a recent report from the Stanford Center on Longevity. The cross-disciplinary Stanford Center was founded in 2007 to conduct research on the key issues associated with increased longevity, - from cognitive health to physical well-being and financial security, - with the aim to make long lives healthy and rewarding.
While the 100-year life may be here, we’re not ready. “By the middle of this century, this once unattainable milestone may become the norm for newborns, continuing a remarkable trend that saw human life expectancies double between 1900 and 2000, and still rising in this century, despite the grievous toll of the Covid-19 pandemic,” notes the report. “Longevity is one of the greatest achievements in human history, brought about by reductions in infant mortality, advances in sanitation and medicine, public education, and rising standards of living. Yet the change came about so quickly that the social institutions, economic policies, and social norms that evolved when people lived for half as long are no longer up to the task.”
According to the Stanford Center, there’s a clear distinction between aging and longevity. Aging is the biological process of getting older - the accumulation of changes in a human being over time. Longevity is “the measure of long life,” - the ways to enhance the quality of a long life “so that people experience a sense of belonging, purpose, and worth at all ages and stages.”
Increased longevity is one of two major demographic trends in the 21st century. Declining birthrates is the second. US birthrates have been steadily declining over the past 30 years, and it’s now the lowest it’s ever been. Together, these two trends have led to the rapid growth of the older population in the US and in most of the rest of the world, especially in more advanced economies.
A recent NY Times article pointed out that if current life expectancy trends continue, more than half of babies in the developed world have a good chance of making it to their 100th birthday. “They are also on track to live, learn, work and retire in systems and institutions that were set up when their grandparents were children. Career and education in the United States (and in much of the developed world) evolved to meet the needs of a different era than the one we currently live in.” People generally completed their education in their 20s; retired from work in their 60s; and often died just a decade or so later. While the more well-off in the developed world have added decades to their life expectancy, the institutions designed to support them have not kept pace.
If people age in the future as they did in the past, developed countries will be facing a major crisis, where an aging society will be engulfed by a graying tsunami. “This static view of what it means to age distorts our perspectives about longevity in the future, and overlooks the opportunity to change the trajectory of aging and associated costs, by starting now to redesign institutions, practices, and norms so that they align with today’s reality, rather than last century’s,” said the Stanford report.
“In place of the outdated assumption that older adults drag down productivity and drain societal resources, we take a forward-facing perspective on the economic potential of a more age-diverse population in which older adults contribute in increasingly significant and measurable ways to the social good and to GDP, so that opportunities for healthy longevity are shared across races, geographical regions, and socioeconomic status.”
The report proposes eight major principles to start laying the groundwork for a healthier, more equitable, and longevity-ready society. Let me summarize four of these principles.
Age Diversity Is a Net Positive. “Never before in human history have so many generations been alive at the same time, creating opportunities for intergenerational connection that have until now been impossible. … The speed, strength, and zest for discovery common in younger people, combined with the emotional intelligence and experience prevalent among older people, create possibilities for families, communities, and workplaces that haven’t existed before.”
In the 1940s, psychologist Raymond Cattell introduced the concepts of fluid and crystallized intelligence. Fluid intelligence is the ability to quickly learn new skills, adapt to new environments and solve novel reasoning problems. It requires considerable raw processing power which generally peaks in our 20s and starts diminishing in our 30s and 40s.
Crystallized intelligence, on the other hand, is the know-how and expertise which we accumulate over decades. It’s the ability to use the stocks of knowledge and experiences gained in the past. It generally increases through our 40s, peaks in our 50s, and does not diminish until late in life.
The specific timing of peak and decline vary depending on the career. Careers based primarily on fluid intelligence tend to peak early while those more based on crystallized intelligence peak later. For example, scientists may produce their major research in their late 30s, but generally remain great teachers, mentors, and administrators until quite late in life thanks to their accumulated knowledge and expertise. Entrepreneurs typically peak and decline fairly young, but CEOs and general managers, - professions that require the knowledge, understanding and wisdom associated with crystallized intelligence, - achieve their most productive years significantly later.
Invest in Future Centenarians to Deliver Big Returns. A crisis narrative portrays old age as a period marked by vulnerability and dependence. On the other hand, a positive longevity perspective “views the 30 extra years of life as a dividend that can be strategically distributed across all stages of life. Milestones, expectations, and social norms will shift as a result.”
“As people live longer and the roles and social norms associated with age become more fluid and self-defined, less uniform and regimented, qualities such as resilience, self-efficacy (a belief in one’s own abilities to shape outcomes), and curiosity (rather than dread) when confronted with change will become the emotional tool kit for longevity.”
Align Health Spans to Life Spans. “While median life spans have increased dramatically over the past century, our health spans - defined as the years in which people are healthy, mobile, mentally sharp, and free of pain - have not kept pace.” Healthy longevity requires investments in public health at every stage of life.
Health span should be the metric for determining how, when and where to invest, and longevity efforts are most effective. “We can use health span as a public health objective that gives healthcare providers and policymakers a more detailed and relevant picture of the conditions, needs, and disparities that contribute directly to longevity differences among populations.”
Work More Years with More Flexibility. “Over the course of 100-year lives, we can expect to work 60 years or more.” But we will likely not work as we do now. Workers seek flexibility, including working from home at times, having flexible routes in and out of the workplace for caregiving, health needs, lifelong learning, and other transitions to be expected over century-long lives.
“Rather than plunging over a retirement cliff” at a time predetermined by age, workers can choose a glide path to retirement over the course of several years, allowing them to gradually reduce working hours while remaining in the workforce.” Some companies might incentivize retired workers to come back as required to share their expertise and help alleviate skilled labor shortage. Older workers are more likely to opt for a flexible schedule over promotions or pay increases. “These options allow workers to continue earning, building financial security, and paying taxes, creating benefits at the individual, workplace, and societal level for more years.”
I’ll conclude by briefly mentioning the last four principles.
Learn Throughout Life. “Lifelong learning provides not only economic opportunities but also measurable health benefits, especially for older adults. Maintaining stimulating activities improves cognitive and physical health.”
Build Longevity-Ready Communities. “We must start now to design and build neighborhoods that are longevity-ready, and to assess potential investments in infrastructure through the lens of longevity.”
Life Transitions Are a Feature Not a Bug. “While the conventional life course is a one-way road through prescripted stages, our new map features roads with forks, which take us in many directions through the roles, opportunities, and obligations that 100-year lives will bring.”
Prepare to Be Amazed by the Future of Aging. “Today’s 5-year-olds will benefit from an astonishing array of medical advances and emerging technologies that will make their experience of aging far different from that of today’s older adults.”
“Meeting the challenges of longevity is not the sole responsibility of government, employers, healthcare providers, or insurance companies; it is an all-hands, all-sector undertaking, requiring the best ideas from the private sector, government, medicine, academia, and philanthropy,” said The New Map of Life in conclusion. “It is not enough to reimagine or rethink society to become longevity-ready; we must build it, and fast. The policies and investments we undertake today will determine how the current young become the future old - and whether we make the most of the 30 extra years of life that have been handed to us.”
Comments