“Last year’s Global Risks Report warned of a world that would not easily rebound from continued shocks,” wrote Saadia Zahidi, managing director of the World Economic Forum (WEF), in the Preface of The Global Risks Report 2024. “As 2024 begins, the 19th edition of the report is set against a backdrop of rapidly accelerating technological change and economic uncertainty, as the world is plagued by a duo of dangerous crises: climate and conflict.”
“Underlying geopolitical tensions combined with the eruption of active hostilities in multiple regions is contributing to an unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives, eroding trust and insecurity,” she added. “At the same time, countries are grappling with the impacts of record-breaking extreme weather, as climate-change adaptation efforts and resources fall short of the type, scale and intensity of climate-related events already taking place.”
The Global Risks Report 2024 is based on two complementary surveys: the Global Risks Perception Survey (GRPS), the WEF’s source of original risk data, which includes the insights and opinions of over 1,500 leaders from academia, business, government, the international community and civil society; and the Executive Opinion Survey (EOS) of over 11,000 leaders from 113 countries who were asked to identify risks that pose the most severe threat to each of their countries over the next two years. In addition, the report includes insights from over 200 risk specialists.
The WEF report analyzed global risks and presented its findings along three distinct timeframes:
- The current term are the risks most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024.
- The short term considers global risks which are likely to play out over the next two years.
- The long term considers global risks that are likely to be most severe over the next ten years.
Let me summarize the report’s key findings.
A deteriorating global outlook. “Looking back at the events of 2023, plenty of developments captured the attention of people around the world — while others received minimal scrutiny. Vulnerable populations grappled with lethal conflicts, from Sudan to Gaza and Israel, alongside record-breaking heat conditions, drought, wildfires and flooding. Societal discontent was palpable.”
First, the survey asked participants to select up to five risks that are most likely to present a material crisis on a global scale in 2024, — the current-time horizon. Extreme weather was selected by 66% as the top current risk, followed by AI-generated information and disinformation (53%), societal and/or political polarization (46%), cost-of-living (42%), and cyberattacks (39%).
The survey then asked participants to rank 34 different risks based on their likely severity over a 2-year and 10-year period, from most to least severe. The 10 top risks in each period are:
| Two-year Period | Ten-year Period |
| Misinformation and disinformation | Extreme weather events |
| Extreme weather events | Critical changes to Earth systems |
| Societal polarization | Biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse |
| Cyber insecurity | Natural resource shortages |
| Interstate armed conflict | Misinformation and disinformation |
| Lack of economic opportunity | Adverse outcomes of AI technologies |
| Inflation | Involuntary migration |
| Involuntary migration | Cyber insecurity |
| Economic downturn | Societal polarization |
| Pollution | Pollution |
Environmental risks could hit the point of no return. Environmental risks dominate the risk landscape, being the top risk in 2024, the second most severe risk in the two-year time frame, and the four top risks in the 10-year timeframe.
As polarization grows and technological risks remain unchecked, ‘truth’ will come under pressure. Not surprisingly, societal polarization is among the top three risks in the current and two-year time horizons. Misinformation and disinformation, a leading cause of societal and political polarization, was the top risk in the two-year timeframe, and second highest risk in the current timeframe.
Economic strains on low- and middle-income people — and countries — are set to grow. Last year, the cost-of-living crisis was ranked by respondents to the 2023 Global Risk survey as the most severe global risk in the short term. Cost-of-living remains among the top five concerns for 2024, and two related risks, — inflation and economic uncertainly, — were among the top ten global risks in the two-year timeframe.
“Economic uncertainty will weigh heavily across most markets, but capital will be the costliest for the most vulnerable countries. Climate-vulnerable or conflict- prone countries stand to be increasingly locked out of much-needed digital and physical infrastructure, trade and green investments and related economic opportunities. As the adaptive capacities of these fragile states erodes further, related societal and environmental impacts are amplified.”
Simmering geopolitical tensions combined with technology will drive new security risks. Geoeconomic confrontation was ranked as the third most severe short term risk in the 2023 Global Risk survey. Not surprisingly, given the Ukraine and Middle East conflicts, in 2024 interstate armed conflict is now the fifth most severe risk in the two-year horizon.
“This becomes an even more worrying risk in the context of recent technological advances. … Over the longer-term, technological advances, including in generative AI, will enable a range of non-state and state actors to access a superhuman breadth of knowledge to conceptualize and develop new tools of disruption and conflict, from malware to biological weapons.”
“Dissatisfaction with the continued political, military and economic dominance of the Global North is growing, particularly as states in the Global South bear the brunt of a changing climate, the aftereffects of pandemic-era crises and geoeconomic rifts between major powers.” Over the next decade, “an evolving set of states will seek a more pivotal influence on the global stage across multiple domains, asserting their power in military, technological and economic terms.”
Opportunities for action to address global risks in a fragmented world. Global risk survey respondents are significantly more pessimistic over the long term outlook for the world than over the short term outlook, with nearly two thirds predicting a stormy and looming (17%) or a turbulent and elevated (46%) catastrophic risk outlook.
In conclusion, the WEF Global Risk Report 2024 noted that while cooperation will come under pressure in an increasingly fragmented world, “there remain key opportunities for action that can be taken locally or internationally, individually or collaboratively — that can significantly reduce the impact of global risks.” These include localized strategies, breakthrough endeavours, collective actions, and cross-border coordination.
- Localized strategies are critical for reducing the impact of global risks, and both the public and private sector can play a key role in extending benefits to all.
- Breakthrough endeavors, grown through efforts to prioritize the future and focus on research and development, can help make the world a safer place.
- Collective actions of individual citizens, companies and countries, while perhaps insignificant on their own, can move the needle on global risk reduction if they reach a critical man. And,
- Cross-border coordination at scale remains the only pathway for the most critical risks to human security and prosperity.
“The next decade will usher in a period of significant change, stretching our adaptive capacity to the limit. A multiplicity of entirely different futures is conceivable over this time frame, and a more positive path can be shaped through our actions to address global risks today.”
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