“Chief executives of some of the world’s largest companies are all-in on artificial intelligence, though many haven’t yet seen meaningful returns on their investments,” said the WSJ in a recent article, “CEOs to Keep Spending on AI, Despite Spotty Returns.” The article is based on the 2026 annual survey of Teneo, a global CEO consulting and advisory firm. “After a year in which trillions of dollars worth of AI investments buoyed global markets and the economy, 68% of CEOs plan to spend even more on AI in 2026,” according to the Teneo survey of more than 350 public-company CEOs.
“Teneo also surveyed about 400 institutional investors, of which 53% expect that AI initiatives would begin to deliver returns on investments within six months,” the WSJ article added. “That compares to the 84% of CEOs of large companies — those with revenue of $10 billion or more — who believe it will take more than six months.”
Teneo’s Vision 2026 survey was conducted from mid-October to mid-November, 2025. Let me summarize its key findings.
Executive Summary
- Cautious Confidence. “With 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors expecting the global economy to improve over the first six months of 2026, optimism is strong for economic growth.
- The US Leads while deglobalization will likely accelerate. The US remains the world’s most attractive investment destination for CEOs, who are undeterred by policy volatility, even as they anticipate that deglobalization will accelerate in 2026.
- Chase for AI ROI. AI readiness is a near-universal priority for CEOs and investors, but businesses are under pressure to show ROI from rising AI spending.
- AI Workforce Dividend. CEOs expect AI to drive a near-term increase in hiring across all levels in 2026 even though AI is expected to have a long-term impact on the future of jobs.
Scaling AI for Success
For new AI initiatives, what is your timeline for expecting to see a positive ROI?
- Over the next 6 months: Large-cap CEOs 16%, mid-cap CEOs 52%, investors 53%.
- More than 6 months: Large-cap CEOs 84%, mid-cap CEOs 48%, investors 47%.
“AI is the only technology in which CEOs plan to increase investment at a faster rate than in 2025, underscoring its shift from an innovation line item to a core driver of competitiveness. Sixty-eight percent of CEOs expect to raise AI spend, and confidence in its value is strengthening: more than 84% of CEOs and investors say AI is meaningfully helping companies mitigate and navigate through disruptions.”
What percentage of AI projects have delivered a tangible ROI?
- Administrative AI: CEOs 40%, investor expectations 43%.
- Internal AI: CEOs 44%, investor expectations 48%.
- Customer facing AI: CEOs 39%, investor expectations 41%.
“CEOs report fewer than half of current AI projects are ROI-positive, but they are seeing the greatest gains across internal efficiency, administrative and customer-facing applications. Beyond ROI, CEOs and investors are seeing the most success across marketing and customer service AI strategies, while applications that pose the greatest potential risk and complexity (security, legal and HR) are the biggest challenges.”
AI Workforce Multiplier
CEOs: How has AI changed your hiring strategy at the following levels?
- Senior leadership: significantly increasing headcount 32%; somewhat increasing headcount 26%.
- Mid career: significantly increasing headcount 44%; somewhat increasing headcount 24%.
- Entry level: significantly increasing headcount 42%; somewhat increasing headcount 25%.
Investors: How should AI change corporations’ hiring strategy at the following levels?
- Senior leadership: significantly increasing headcount 41%; somewhat increasing headcount 25%.
- Mid career: significantly increasing headcount 44%; somewhat increasing headcount 26%.
- Entry level: significantly increasing headcount 48%; somewhat increasing headcount 27%.
“Momentum in the market is reflected in internal people strategies, with most CEOs and investors expecting AI to drive an increase in hiring across all levels in 2026. This near-term shift is essential to unlock AI’s future efficiency, cost and commercial potential — changes that will ultimately lead to a far-reaching impact on jobs. Sixty-seven percent of CEOs say AI is increasing entry-level headcount and 58% expect expansion of senior leadership roles. CEOs also rank increasing the use of AI and automation to augment the workforce (50%) and upskilling talent (46%) as the top priorities for their organizations in 2026.”
What skills and talents will the next generation of CEOs and investors need to bring to their jobs?
- “The overwhelming majority of CEOs believe AI, innovation and agility are essential skills for the next generation of CEOs, while investors prioritize strategic thinking, intelligence and understanding.”
Growth Outlook: Measured Confidence
Do you expect the global economy to improve or worsen over the first six months of 2026?
- “The global economic outlook for the first half of 2026 remains positive but is easing year-over-year, with 73% of CEOs and 82% of investors expecting improvement in 2026 (compared to 77% and 86% in 2025, respectively).”
Globalization Recalibrated
CEOs: To what extent do you consider each of the regional markets below to be an attractive investment opportunity for your business in 2026?
- US 89%, Asia-Pacific 82%, Canada 79%, Continental Europe 74%, Middle East 74%, UK 73%.
How important are India and China to your business strategy?
- Today: China 41%, India 33%; over the next 5 years: China, 40% India 41%; Over the net 10 years: China 44%, India 47%.
Which of the following is closest to your own view about the rate of deglobalization?
- CEOs: accelerating rapidly 14%, accelerating slowly 46%, slowing down a little 13%, slowing down a lot 2%, not happening 14%.
- Investors: accelerating rapidly 15%, accelerating slowly 42%, slowing down a little 14%, slowing down a lot 5%, not happening 15%.
The WSJ article included two other notable findings from the Teneo survey.
First, “31% of large-company CEOs said they expect the global economy to improve in the first six months of 2026, down from 51% a year ago. That is partly due to concerns about global trade and geopolitical uncertainty. Smaller-company CEOs, meanwhile, are much more bullish: 80% of those CEOs expect an improvement in the new year, compared with 83% a year ago.”
Second, “78% of CEOs believe there will be more merger-and-acquisition activity in 2026. About 83% had predicted more activity in 2025, and they were right: Global M&A levels so far this year are up over 40%.”
Finally, the WSJ noted that the Teneo survey was the second poll in December to arrive at similar conclusions. A December 9 WSJ article, “CEOs Are All-In on AI,” reported that according to a survey of 100 American CEOs by the market research company Stagwell, “chief executives are bullish on the broad economic impact of artificial intelligence,” despite investor concerns that AI spending is becoming overdone.
Let me conclude by summarizing the key findings from the Stagwell survey:
- CEOs support AI as a transformative force: “Nearly all CEOs (85%) see AI as entering a healthy growth phase rather than a bubble, with generative AI viewed as the most transformative technology of 2026. 78% of CEOs maintain they are bullish on AI’s impact on workplace efficiency and innovation.”
- CEOs predict economic unease, but maintain measured confidence: “While 62% of CEOs believe the U.S. is on the wrong track, nearly three in four (74%) express confidence in the resilience of the U.S. economy heading into 2026.”
- Inflation, debt, and jobs dominate CEO agendas: “Financial stability is the top policy focus for 2026, with managing inflation (61%), reducing debt (47%), and job creation (33%) marked as top policy priorities.”
- Policy and political concerns weigh on CEO confidence: “Regulatory and policy shifts (66%) and trade restrictions (60%), are expected to have the greatest impact on business. Nearly half (46%) are pessimistic about political leaders’ stability and predictability.”