Earlier this year, I attended Predictions 21, an online event organized by Forrester Research to help companies understand the key business and technology dynamics that will shape 2021 and beyond. “Faced with the pandemic, firms did things that once seemed impossible - sometimes overnight,” said the accompanying event guide. “Under the relentless pressure of new customer realities, the future came into focus: The value of your company depends on how customer-obsessed, resilient, creative, and adaptive you are in jumping to the next growth curve in your industry. … 2021 will be the year that every company - not just the 15% of firms that were already digitally savvy - doubles down on technology-fueled experiences, operations, products, and ecosystems.”
The past year has been truly chaotic. How can firms formulate their strategies for the next few years in such an uncertain environment? But, as former US president Dwight Eisenhower famously said when he was Commander of Allied Forces in WWII: “In preparing for battle I have always found that plans are useless but planning is indispensable.” In other words, you must carefully assess the various directions in a highly uncertain future while being ready to flexibly adjust to changing circumstances.
Much has been written about the post-pandemic new normal. There are multiple opinions on a number of areas, such as cities, globalization, supply chains, and labor markets. But, just about everyone predicts an increasingly digital post-pandemic new normal. “The COVID-19 crisis seemingly provides a sudden glimpse into a future world, one in which digital has become central to every interaction,” said McKinsey in an April, 2020 article. “The adoption of new technological behaviours in response to the pandemic, from video-conferencing to online shopping, means usage has already reached levels that were not expected for many more years,” noted The Economist several months later.
In addition to the online webinar, Predictions 21 includes a number of related articles and videos. Let me summarize a few of Forrester’s key predictions.
30% of firms will increase spend on cloud, security and risk, networks, and mobility. The pandemic has now made the case for accelerating a firm’s digital transformation. CIOs must now assume the responsibility to embrace and scale the changes that helped their companies cope with the crisis. “Interviews with leading CIOs found that they are collaborating more across organizations, objectives, and budgets, extending IT-business partnerships into enterprise- level shared accountability. They will also invest aggressively in employees, breaking down old ideals and resolving resistance within the organization.”
The global public cloud infrastructure market will grow 35% to $120 billion in 2021. “The workplace impact of the global pandemic reinforced the tremendous value and necessity of cloud computing to the world’s economy and workforce. Without cloud apps, tools, and services, businesses could not have sent millions of workers home, maintained global supply chains, or shifted entire industry business models in a matter of weeks. … The aggressive move to cloud, already proceeding at a healthy clip before the pandemic, will spike in 2021, yielding even greater enterprise adoption, cloud provider revenue, and business value in 2021.”
Remote work will rise to 300% of pre-COVID levels. Remote work is here to stay. While there’s some nostalgia for the good-old pre-pandemic days circa January 2020, - when you could bump into people over lunch or coffee, - most companies have been quite pleased with how well remote working has gone. “In 2021, at least 21% of US information workers will work primarily from home, compared with 7% in 2019. Some 47% of North American managers surveyed during the pandemic anticipate a permanently higher rate of full-time remote employees, and 53% of employees say they want to work from home more often even after the pandemic. Most companies will employ a hybrid work model, with fewer people in the office and more full-time remote employees. … Expect this to reshape talent acquisition, moving right into talent poaching, as the most desirable workers seek location- agnostic work opportunities.”
35% of companies will double down on workplace AI. Forrester forecasts that one out of every four remote workers will be supported by new forms of automation over the coming years. Robotic process automation (RPA), for example, will help automate business tasks often invisible to the home worker. “Many firms will invest in conversational artificial intelligence, machine learning, and hardware advances to help smooth some of these workplace changes: Work-from-home staff will see EX automation perform tasks that were previously done in the office or that held higher labor costs, such as employee self-service, customer service support, and document extraction.”
More than 60% of B2B sellers will be enabled by AI and automation. The pandemic has accelerated the digital evolution of B2B buyers and sellers. More than one-third of B2B technology buyers say digital channels have become more important. “Fifty-seven percent of B2B sales leaders told us they plan to make deeper investments in tools with AI and automation in the upcoming fiscal year. Sales tools that capture and automatically upload buyer and seller activity data to CRM systems will finally take sellers out of the data entry game. … As the amount of buyer engagement data increases, AI can surface patterns, guide the seller to the next best action, and identify the buyer’s preferred channel.”
Spend on loyalty and retention marketing will increase by 30% as CMOs assert control over the full customer lifecycle. Leading CMOs are integrating the marketing of their products with the overall after-purchase customer experience, - e.g., product utilization, customer service, retention and advocacy. “Disjointed experiences cost millions and lose customers - they are the antithesis of customer obsession. Growth comes from continued use of a company’s offering, so it’s imperative to focus on acquiring customers who will stick around for the long haul. … Already, media money is shifting into retention methods such as email, customer service, and the creation of products that drive growth.”
25% of brands will achieve statistically significant advances in CX quality in 2021. People have complex, emotional relationship with brands and their associated products and services. And like any relationship involving emotions and expectations, they need to be carefully nurtured. That’s what this year’s leading companies did “to determine what really matters to their customers, identified projects to improve important experiences, prioritized the efforts with the biggest potential upside for customers and the business, and then trained their employees (and gave them new tools) so that they could deliver the right experiences consistently. … having one voice-of-the-customer program and not many - aiming for fewer cooks in the kitchen - will come to fruition, leading to consolidation of CX tools and technologies.”
“Following sudden and profound disruption in 2020, a new landscape is emerging,” said Forrester’s Predictions 2021 guide in conclusion. “Hard-won lessons in adaptability, creativity, and resilience will continue to serve companies as they navigate ongoing change. No industry or firm will be untouched as ways of working, leading, and serving customers are transformed.”
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