“The rise of artificial intelligence is the great story of our time,” notes What to Do When Machines Do Everything in its Preface. The book was published earlier this year by Malcolm Frank, Paul Roehrig and Ben Bring of Cognizant’s Center for the Future of Work. “Artificial intelligence has left the laboratory (and the movie lot)… It’s pervading all the institutions that drive our global economy.… And this is just the beginning.”
The book deals with a number of important questions: When machines do everything, what am I going to do?; Will a robot take my job away?; How are humans going to make a living?; What will my industry look like in 10 years?; Will my children be better off than I am?
Overall, the authors are optimistic about the future, reminding us that we’ve been here before. Automation anxieties have been with us ever since the 1810s, when the so-called Luddites smashed the new weaving machines that were threatening their textile jobs, and they continued to resurface over the past two centuries right along with advances in technology.
Over 60 years ago, the advent of computers led to a new round of automation fears. In 1965, Newsweek devoted a special issue to The Challenge of Automation, which it called “the most controversial economic concept of the age. Businessmen love it. Workers fear it. The government frets and investigates and wonders what to do about it.
In his 1964 Bill creating the National Commission on Technology, Automation and Economic Progress, President Lyndon Johnson said that “Technology is creating both new opportunities and new obligations for us, opportunity for greater productivity and progress - obligation to be sure that no workingman, no family must pay an unjust price for progress.”
These anxieties at the dawn of the computer age reminded me of Desk Set, a 1957 film I saw a long time ago starring the great Spencer Tracy and Katharine Hepburn. Its basic plot revolved around the acquisition of two electronic brains by the NBC-like Federal Broadcasting Network. Hepburn’s character was in charge of the network’s reference library, - a librarian who was not too keen on either computers or efficiency experts. Tracy’s character was the computer and efficiency expert, who promptly fell in love with the sharp librarian who was every bit his match. When employees learned that computers were coming, fear arose that they would all be replaced. But, in the end, it’s made clear that the computer was there to help, not replace, the staff and love triumphs in this lighthearted romantic comedy.
Automation fears have understandbly accelerated in recent years, as our increasingly smart machines are now being applied to activities requiring intelligence and cognitive capabilities that not long ago were viewed as the exclusive domain of humans. “Previous technological innovation has always delivered more long-run employment, not less. But things can change,” said an Economist article from January, 2014. “Nowadays, the majority of economists confidently wave such worries away… Yet some now fear that a new era of automation enabled by ever more powerful and capable computers could work out differently.”
A few weeks ago I read an intriguing article in Newsweek by author and columnist Kevin Maney, - Will AI Robots Turn Humans into Pets? The article described a recent meeting at the United Nations, where, “at a table as long as a tennis court, around 70 of the best minds in artificial intelligence recently ate a sea bass dinner and could not, for the life of them, agree on the coming impact of AI and robots.”
“This is perhaps the most vexing challenge of AI. There’s a great deal of agreement around the notion that humans are creating a genie unlike any that’s poofed out of a bottle so far - yet no consensus on what that genie will ultimately do for us. Or to us… Is such lightning change good? Who knows?”
Maney remined us that this AI tsunami is likely not that different from changes we’ve already weathered. “Every generation has felt that technology was changing too much too fast. It’s not always possible to calibrate what we’re going through while we’re going through it.”
We can only speculate how things will play out this time around within a wide range of points of view, some more pessimistic, others more optimistic. What to Do When Machines Do Everything is very much in the optimistic camp. “Some see only the dark side of this shift, and indeed, many of today’s headlines forecast a grim future in a jobless economy as robots take over our livelihoods.” But, its authors believe that the coming digital boom and build-out “will be highly promising for those who are prepared. In fact, it will usher in once-in-a-century growth prospects as we reengineer our infrastructure, our industries, and our institutions.… and will unleash enormous prospects and prosperity for those who learn to harness the new machine.”
“Will many jobs be automated away in the coming years? Yes. However, for the vast majority of professions, the new machine will actually enhance and protect employment. We don’t think, for example, that a single teacher or nurse will lose their job due to artificial intelligence. Instead, these professions will become more productive, more effective… and more enjoyable. Workers in such professions will come to view the new machine as their trusted colleague.”
The AI revolution is still in its early stages. “For the past decade, we’ve collectively enjoyed digital that’s fun… We are using the most powerful innovations since the introduction of alternating current to share cat videos, chat with Aunt Alice, and hashtag political rants.” But, we’re just entering, “an era of big brains focused on big ideas - digital that matters - using these technologies to transform how we are educated, fed, transported, insured, medicated, and governed.”
The book provides a roadmap for successfully navigating this major transition:
- Automate: “Outsource rote, computational work to the new machine. This is how Netflix automated away the Blockbuster retail store and how Uber is automating away taxi dispatching.”
- Halo: “Instrument products and people and leverage the data exhaust they generate through their connected and online behaviors (what we call Code Halos) to create new customer experiences and business models.”
- Enhance: “View the computer as a colleague that can increase your job productivity and satisfaction. The GPS in your car currently enhances your driving, keeping you on the fastest route, alerting you of road hazards, and ensuring that you never get lost. In the coming years, entire vocations, from sales to nursing to teaching, will be revolutionized with the power of computer-based enhancement.”
- Abundance: “Use the new machine to open up vast new markets by dropping the price point of existing offers, much as Henry Ford did with automobiles”
- Discovery: “Leverage AI to conceive entirely new products, new services, and entirely new industries. As Edison’s light bulb led to new discoveries in radio, television, and transistors, today’s new machine will lead to a new generation of discovery and invention.”
“Technology is no longer the domain of the few but the province of the many. As such, those who win in the next phase of the digital economy are not those who can create the new machines, but those who figure out what to do with them.”
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