A few weeks ago, The Economist published “The World Ahead 2026,” its 40th annual issue examining the trends and events likely to shape the coming year.
Two years ago, the overriding message of “The World Ahead 2024” was the mind-boggling speed at which life was changing—from turmoil in the Middle East and economic uncertainty to the redrawing of the global energy map and the rapid advance of artificial intelligence (AI).
Last year, the dominant theme of “The World Ahead 2025” was uncertainty. As World Ahead editor Tom Sandage wrote in his introduction, “like Schrödinger’s cat, which (in a quantum thought-experiment) was both alive and dead at the same time inside a closed box, 2025 has hovered in a superposition of two very different states, defined by the outcome of America’s election. Now the ballot boxes have been opened, the world knows which 2025 to expect: the one where Donald Trump returns to the White House.”
We are now living in Donald Trump’s world, Sandage writes in the introduction to “The World Ahead 2026.” “The disruptor-in-chief was the biggest factor shaping global affairs in 2025, and that will be the case for as long as he remains in the White House. His norm-shattering approach has caused turmoil in some areas (as in trade) but has also delivered diplomatic results (as in Gaza) and forced necessary change (as with European defence spending). As the Trumpnado spins on in 2026, here are ten trends and themes to watch in the coming year.”
America’s 250th. Expect sharply divergent accounts of America’s past, present, and future as Republicans and Democrats mark the 250th anniversary of the country’s founding. Voters will then deliver their verdict in the midterm elections in November. But even if Democrats take the House, Mr. Trump’s rule by tariffs, executive orders, and political bullying will continue.
Geopolitical drift. Foreign-policy analysts are divided: is the world entering a new cold war between blocs led by America and China, or will a Trumpian deal divide the planet into American, Russian, and Chinese “spheres of influence”? Don’t count on either. Mr. Trump favors a transactional, instinct-driven approach rather than grand geopolitical frameworks. The old rules-based order will continue to drift and decay, while ad hoc “coalitions of the willing” strike deals on defence, trade, and climate.
War or peace? Yes. With luck, the fragile peace in Gaza will hold. But conflicts will grind on in Ukraine, Sudan, and Myanmar. Russia and China will test America’s commitment to its allies with “grey-zone” provocations in northern Europe and the South China Sea. As the line between war and peace blurs, tensions will rise in the Arctic, in orbit, on the sea floor, and in cyberspace.
Problems for Europe. Europe faces a particular test: it must increase defence spending, keep America on side, boost economic growth, and manage large deficits—while avoiding austerity that could fuel support for hard-right parties. It also wants to remain a champion of free trade and climate action. It cannot do all of these at once. A surge in defence spending may lift growth, but only modestly.
China’s opportunity. China has its own challenges—deflation, slowing growth, and industrial overcapacity—but Mr. Trump’s “America First” policies create opportunities to expand its global influence. China will present itself as a more reliable partner, particularly in the global south, where it is striking new trade agreements. It is also willing to do tactical deals with Mr. Trump on soybeans or chips. The challenge will be to keep relations with America transactional rather than confrontational.
Economic worries. America’s economy has so far proven more resilient to Mr. Trump’s tariffs than many expected, but those tariffs will dampen global growth. Meanwhile, rich countries are living beyond their means, increasing the risk of a bond-market crisis. Much will depend on the replacement of Jerome Powell as chair of the Federal Reserve in May; politicizing the Fed could trigger a market showdown.
Concerns over AI. Rampant spending on AI infrastructure may be concealing underlying economic weakness in America. Will the bubble burst? As with railways, electricity, and the internet, a crash would not mean the technology lacks real value—but it could have wide economic consequences. Either way, concerns about AI’s impact on jobs, especially for graduates, will deepen.
A mixed climate picture. Limiting warming to 1.5°C is no longer realistic, and Mr. Trump opposes renewables. Yet global emissions have probably peaked, clean tech is booming in the global south, and many firms will meet or exceed their climate targets—though they may keep quiet about it to avoid political backlash. Geothermal energy is one area worth watching.
Sporting values. Sport is supposed to offer respite from politics—but not in 2026. The football World Cup will be jointly hosted by America, Canada, and Mexico, whose relations are strained. Fans may stay away. Even more controversial may be the Enhanced Games in Las Vegas, where athletes are permitted to use performance-enhancing drugs. Is it cheating—or just different?
Ozempic, but better. Cheaper, more effective GLP-1 weight-loss drugs—available in pill form—are coming, expanding access. But are they cheating? GLP-1s extend the ethics debate around performance-enhancing drugs far beyond elite athletes. Few people compete in the Olympics—but anyone can take part in the Ozempic games.
Let me briefly discuss the trend I’ve most closely followed over the past year.
Concerns Over AI: AI’s True Impact Will Become Apparent
“Will the bubble burst for AI in 2025, or will it start to deliver?” asked The Economist a year ago. “It may be the biggest gamble in business history,” the magazine added, noting that “most companies are still not sure what the technology can or cannot do, or how best to use it. … The disparity between investor enthusiasm and business reality looks untenable—which means 2025 is shaping up to be a crunch year.”
A year later, The Economist posed the question again: “Will it be boom, bust or backlash?” In the expectation that AI will be transformative, large American tech firms poured more than $400 billion into data centres and related infrastructure during 2025; by one estimate, a staggering $7 trillion will be spent by the end of the decade. Yet revenues from AI amount to only about $50 billion a year—roughly one-eighth of Apple’s or Alphabet’s annual revenues. As the world grows accustomed to AI’s technical feats, attention is shifting to its economic, financial, and social consequences.
“Corporate spending on artificial intelligence is surging as executives bank on major efficiency gains,” wrote New York Times technology and business reporter Steve Lohr in a recent article, “Companies Are Pouring Billions Into A.I. It Has Yet to Pay Off.” Nearly four decades ago, Lohr noted, during the personal-computer boom, a “productivity paradox” emerged: despite heavy investment in new technology, there was little evidence of improved efficiency.
A similar AI productivity paradox now appears to be taking shape. While many companies report using AI, few report meaningful bottom-line impact.
History offers a useful guide. It often takes decades for companies and industries to realize the productivity gains of transformative technologies such as the steam engine or electricity. Productivity growth, for example, did not accelerate until roughly 40 years after electric power was introduced in the early 1880s. It took until the 1920s for manufacturers to reorganize factories and develop new processes—such as the assembly line—that fully exploited electric power.
“A key indicator to watch in 2026 will therefore be the rate of formal adoption, and the extent to which these efforts are succeeding,” The Economist argues. “If adoption picks up, investors will continue to believe that their extravagance and patience will ultimately be rewarded. But any sign that the gains from AI will be slow to arrive—or may not come at all—could cause valuations to deflate.”
“History shows that even useful technologies, such as railways and the internet, have been accompanied by financial exuberance,” the magazine concludes. “A market correction in AI would have knock-on consequences for America’s economy. Investment in data centres and the wealth effects of a roaring stock market have helped mask the impact of tariffs, lower migration, and uncertainty. But if the AI boom falters, trillions of dollars of American household wealth could be wiped away.”
As The World Ahead 2026 makes clear, the coming year will test not just political alliances and economic resilience, but whether societies can absorb rapid technological change—especially AI—without the financial excess, social disruption, and misplaced expectations that have accompanied every previous great transformation.