The mission of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) is to lead intelligence integration and long-term strategic thinking across a wide variety of sources, including the US Intelligence Community, policy makers, and experts in academia and the private sector. Every four years, the NIC develops a Global Trends report that examines the key trends and uncertainties that will shape the global environment during the next two decades. This is done to provide the incoming administration with a framework for long-range strategic policy assessment. Global Trends 2040 - A More Contested World (GT2040), the latest NIC report, was published in March, 2021, a few weeks after President Joe Biden’s inauguration. Let me briefly discuss.
“During the past year, the COVID-19 pandemic has reminded the world of its fragility and demonstrated the inherent risks of high levels of interdependence,” notes the report in its introduction. Not surprisingly, given that we’ve been living through the most significant global disruption since WW2, GT2040 paints a rather dark picture of what lies ahead.
“In coming years and decades, the world will face more intense and cascading global challenges ranging from disease to climate change to the disruptions from new technologies and financial crises. These challenges will repeatedly test the resilience and adaptability of communities, states, and the international system, often exceeding the capacity of existing systems and models. This looming disequilibrium between existing and future challenges and the ability of institutions and systems to respond is likely to grow and produce greater contestation at every level.” As a NY Times editorial observed, “Experts in Washington who have read these reports said they do not recall a gloomier one.”
Five key themes appear throughout the report, underpinning their gloomy assessment:
Shared global challenges. Climate change, disease, financial crises, and technology disruptions are likely to manifest more frequently and intensely in almost every region and country, and will produce “widespread strains on states and societies as well as shocks that could be catastrophic.”
Increasing fragmentation. Our hyperconnected information environment, greater urbanization, and global interdependence mean that most aspects of daily life will be more connected than ever. “Paradoxically, as the world has grown more connected, … that very connectivity has divided and fragmented people and countries.”
Disequilibrium. “The scale of transnational challenges, and the emerging implications of fragmentation, are exceeding the capacity of existing systems and structures. … The international system - including the organizations, alliances, rules, and norms - is poorly set up to address the compounding global challenges facing populations.”
Greater contestation. This greater imbalance will lead to rising tensions, division, and competition across societies, states, and the international community. “At the international level, the geopolitical environment will be more competitive - shaped by China’s challenge to the United States and Western-led international system.”
Adaptation. “Climate change, for example, will force almost all states and societies to adapt to a warmer planet.” Countries with aging populations face constraints on economic growth and will have to increase automation and immigration. AI and other advanced technologies will be key avenues for boosting productivity.
Structural Forces: Setting the Parameters
GT2040 explores the structural forces shaping the next two decades in four core areas: demographics, environment, economic, and technology. “We selected these areas because they are foundational in shaping future dynamics and relatively universal in scope, and because we can offer projections with a reasonable degree of confidence based on available data and evidence,” notes the report.
Demographics. Major demographic shifts are expected over the next 20 years. Developed economies in Europe and East Asia will age faster and face contracting populations, which will impact their economic growth. In contrast, developing countries in Latin America, South Asia, and the Middle East and North Africa have the opportunity to benefit from their larger working-age populations, but only if coupled with improvements in infrastructure and skills. “Past improvements focused on the basics of health, education, and poverty reduction, but the next levels of development are more difficult and face headwinds from the COVID-19 pandemic, potentially slower global economic growth, aging populations, and the effects of conflict and climate.”
Environment. The physical effects of climate change are likely to intensify during the next two decades. “More extreme storms, droughts, and floods; melting glaciers and ice caps; and rising sea levels will accompany rising temperatures. The impact will disproportionately fall on the developing world and poorer regions and intersect with environmental degradation to create new vulnerabilities and exacerbate existing risks to economic prosperity, food, water, health, and energy security.”
Economics. Growing national debt, a more complex and fragmented trading environment, a shift in trade, and new employment disruptions are likely to shape conditions within and between states. “Many governments may find they have reduced flexibility as they navigate greater debt burdens, diverse trading rules, and a broader array of powerful state and corporate actors exerting influence. … Productivity growth remains a key variable; an increase in the rate of growth could alleviate many economic, human development, and other challenges.”
Technology. Technology has the potential to help address climate change, public health and other challenging areas, but it could also eliminate jobs, especially for those with less education and marketable skills, leading to increased unemployment and inequality. “During the next two decades, the pace and reach of technological developments are likely to increase ever faster, transforming a range of human experiences and capabilities while also creating new tensions and disruptions within and between societies, industries, and states.”
Scenarios for 2040: Charting the Future Amid Uncertainty
Human responses to these global challenges will determine how the world evolves during the next two decades. To better understand how such a highly uncertain future might play out, GT2040 explored the answers to three key questions: how severe are the looming global challenges?; how do states and nonstate actors engage in the world, including focus and type of engagement?; and what do states prioritize for the future?
These questions helped identify five plausible and distinctive scenarios for what the world might be like in 2040. Let me conclude by briefly discussing each of these alternative worlds.
Renaissance of Democracies. In this optimistic scenario, the world is experiencing a resurgence of open democracies led by the US and its allies. “Rapid technological advancements fostered by public-private partnerships in the United States and other democratic societies are transforming the global economy, raising incomes, and improving the quality of life for millions around the globe. The rising tide of economic growth and technological achievement enables responses to global challenges, eases societal divisions, and renews public trust in democratic institutions.”
A World Adrift. But, in this pessimistic scenario, the international system is directionless, chaotic, and volatile. International rules are largely ignored by major powers like China, regional players, and nonstarter actors. OECD countries are suffering from slower economic growth, widening societal divisions, and political paralysis. Many global challenges, such as climate change and instability in developing countries are largely unaddressed.
Competitive Coexistence. “[T]he United States and China have prioritized economic growth and restored a robust trading relationship, but this economic interdependence exists alongside competition over political influence, governance models, technological dominance, and strategic advantage. The risk of major war is low, and international cooperation and technological innovation make global problems manageable over the near term for advanced economies, but longer term climate challenges remain.”
Separate Silos. The world is fragmented into economic and security blocs of varying size and strength, - including the US, China, the European Union, Russia, and a few regional powers, - each focused on its own self-sufficiency, resiliency, and defense. “Vulnerable developing countries are caught in the middle with some on the verge of becoming failed states. Global problems, notably climate change, are spottily addressed, if at all.”
Tragedy and Mobilization. In this final scenario, climate events and environmental degradation led to a global food catastrophe. A global coalition of countries, nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) and multilateral institutions are trying to implement far-reaching changes to address to address climate change, resource depletion, and widespread poverty. “Richer countries shift to help poorer ones manage the crisis and then transition to low carbon economies through broad aid programs and transfers of advanced energy technologies, recognizing how rapidly these global challenges spread across borders.”
“We offer this analysis with humility, knowing that invariably the future will unfold in ways that we have not foreseen,” says the GT2040 report. “The goal is not to offer a specific prediction of the world in 2040; instead, our intent is to help policymakers and citizens see what may lie beyond the horizon and prepare for an array of possible futures.”
Very insightful and engaging.
Posted by: Pertisth | July 05, 2021 at 12:39 AM