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July 25, 2020



Irving, I wonder if some of this is due to the way that we think about risk. According to Kahnemann and Tversky, a team becomes more risk-seeking when it has less to lose and the most risk-seeking when they are "underwater". For a team that's gotten the funding, they will be more risk-averse because they have the money and the research and don't want to lose it. For the team that didn't get the funding, they need to do something really interesting! From this, you'd expect the really interesting thinking to come from those with nothing to lose!

David Matthew

Irving, Many thanks for a provocative article. One variable not noted in the research could be significant, however. I have seen enormous variability in the presentation quality of proposals; i.e. some are far more coherently presented and argued than others, irrespective of the underlying scientific or mathematical bases. Perhaps the linguistic and organizational communications facility is a factor. (This would be very difficult to analyze, of course.) Thanks for the thoughtful, and well-presented, contribution.

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