For over 20 years, I have been actively involved in US public policy matters in a variety of roles. In the mid 1980s, for example, I helped found the Computer Science and Telecommunications Board (CSTB) which is part of the National Academies, and served as a member of the board until 1989. From 1997 to 2001 I was a member of PITAC, the President’s Information Technology Advisory Committee, and served as its co-chair from 1999 to 2001. From time to time, I like to go to Washington to meet with people in various parts of government and discuss a variety of issues.
So, on a very hot summer day last week, I went to Washington to talk about innovation, science and technology strategy, and related public policy matters. I talked to a number of staff members in Congress and the Administration. I used the themes I have been using in recent talks, that I believe we are at the onset of a technology-based business process revolution that could have the impact on the 21st century that the Industrial Revolution had on the previous 250 years. "Business Process Revolution" may not be the right name, but that is beside the point. The key point is that this revolution, whatever historians end up calling it, will have a huge impact on all aspects of business, society and our personal lives, and it will both drive and be driven by innovation in hyper-drive, as was the case with the Industrial Revolution.
Everyone listened to me politely, some agreeing with me, others I presume wondering what in the world I was talking about. But a question kept coming up over and over, one that seems to be everywhere, not just in Washington. How do we know that America can still be an innovation leader in the 21st century, especially when you look at what is happening in China, India and other parts of the world? There seems to be a kind of foreboding in the air, a sense that "Perhaps we’ve lost it."
I have seen this movie before. Sometime around 1988-89, the CSTB organized a workshop on competitiveness at the beautiful National Academy building in Washington across the street from the Lincoln and Vietnam memorials. I remember some speakers saying that it was really good that the US was strong in agriculture because, being no longer any good in manufacturing, we could at least trade rice and oranges to Japan and Germany for the cars, TVs and other goods that we could no longer make ourselves. In the 1980s, Japan and Germany were the China and India of today. Without minimizing the continuing strength of Japan and Germany in many areas, it is fair to say that the future did not play out the way many back then said it would. For example, in short order the Internet came along, then the dot com bubble came along, and here we are talking about the potential for a historic business process revolution.
Handicapping the global economic horserace is not only impossible, but in the end, it’s not the issue. The important point is that the changes we are experiencing today are really, really complicated, and we have no idea where they will take us. Complex systems — organizations, communities or economies that are composed of large numbers of rapidly changing, highly interrelated components — become essentially unpredictable or emergent.
At such times, you definitely need the best knowledge available. Technical talent is more important than ever, so you need to invest in R&D, you need substantial skills in science and engineering, and you need a highly educated population, all of which are issues that the US — or any nation — needs to address. (See the excellent testimony that Nick Donofrio recently gave at a hearing on US innovation challenges before the House Science Committee.)
But even more important than what you know is your capacity to adapt. We have to keep in mind that America has some incredible strengths that will continue to serve us really well in the world we are moving into. When facing something very complicated and unpredictable, you need a highly flexible society that will quickly absorb and adapt to changes be they political, economic or social. The fact that our society is deeply grounded in democratic institutions, free market principles and respect for diversity bodes very well for America’s future as a center of innovation.
We have a lot to do and we could still blow it, but frankly I do believe that we are moving into this very exciting and unpredictable future from a position of considerable strength.
