Irving Wladawsky-Berger

The Evolution of Global Supply Chains

“The central purpose of supply chains is to fulfill the needs and wants of humanity — delivering all the food, medicine, energy, apparel, and other worldly goods needed by the eight billion people in the planet,” wrote MIT professor Yossi Sheffi in the preface of his 2023 book, The Magic Conveyor Belt: Supply Chains, A.I. and the Future of Work. “The societal and economic spasms of the early 2020s highlighted the crucial role of world-spanning supply chains in the modern global economy, as well as the growing role of digital technology, including A.I. and automation, in the future economy.”

Lately, I’ve been thinking a lot about supply chains. Not only are global supply chains among the most complex of man-made systems, but supply chains are nowhere near ready to be transformed because many of the tasks and processes involved in supply chains are still in the early stages of digitalization. As I think about my personal experience in the evolution of the IT industry, the successful collaboration around standards spurred a new era of productivity and growth. We have yet to see a similar catalyst in the supply chain ecosystem.

I’ve been following the evolution of global supply chains for the past three decades. The 1990s ushered in a golden age of globalization, when the world seemed to be coming together. Thomas Friedman’s The World is Flat became an international best-seller in 2005, nicely explaining what globalization was all about, including the key forces that contributed to flattening the world, from the explosive growth of the Internet to the rise of just-in-time global supply chains. The very nature of the global organization was transformed, with IBM CEO Sam Palmisano declaring in a 2006 Foreign Affairs article that “The Globally Integrated Enterprise” was destined to become the corporate model of the future.

My interest in global supply chains increased significantly in the mid 2010s, fueled by my fascination with enterprise blockchain technologies. In 2016, the World Economic Forum (WEF) included blockchain in its annual list of Top Emerging Technologies. The WEF report compared blockchain to the Internet, noting that “Like the Internet, the blockchain is an open, global infrastructure upon which other technologies and applications can be built. And like the Internet, it allows people to bypass traditional intermediaries in their dealings with each other, thereby lowering or even eliminating transaction costs.”

Advancing Global Trade through Open-Source, Digital Bill of Lading

“Imagine you’re a cargo owner in the year 1450,” begins “The multi-billion-dollar paper jam: Unlocking trade by digitalizing documentation,” a McKinsey article published in October of 2022. “You hand over your goods to the ship that will carry them across the world, and are presented with a bill of lading — a piece of paper stating what you’re shipping, where it comes from, and where it’s heading. Fast forward to the year 2022: The world has changed dramatically, but the bill of lading remains relatively unchanged. Today, the bill of lading process is still reliant on the physical transfer of paper records and applies to roughly 40 percent of all containerized trade transactions.”

“Current trade documentation spans many documents and processes, and is a manual, time-consuming, and resource-intensive process for all stakeholders. Documentation for a single shipment can require up to 50 sheets of paper that are exchanged with up to 30 different stakeholders. The bill of lading, issued by carriers to acknowledge receipt of cargo from the shipper, is one of the most important trade documents required for shipping.”

According to McKinsey, the bill of lading accounts for between 10 and 30 percent of total trade documentation costs; adopting an electronic bill of lading could save $6.5 billion in direct costs and enable between $30 billion and $40 billion in new global trade volume. “While the banking and aviation industries have implemented digital standards enabling automated trade systems, shipping has not matured far beyond where it was in the 1400s.”

In a recent article, “Advancing Global Trade through Open-Source Electronic Bill of Lading,” the Digital Supply Chain Institute (DSCI) explained the role of bill of lading in global supply chains. “The bill of lading (B/L) functions as an important role in global trade, providing a tangible record of cargo ownership, conditions, and delivery obligations,” according to the article. “While deeply entrenched in trade practices, the traditional paper-based bill of lading has its shortcomings: inefficiencies stemming from manual processes have led to delays, errors, and a higher susceptibility to loss and fraud.”

An Open Source, Standards-Based Approach for the Future of Supply Chains

In 2018 I participated in a blockchain panel at a conference of senior supply chain executives representing a variety of industries and companies. I welcomed the opportunity to learn how these supply chain executives felt about the potential impact of blockchain technologies in complex supply chains.

At the time, I was convinced that blockchain technologies would be a major next step in the evolution of the internet. Two years earlier, for example, the World Economic Forum (WEF) had named The Blockchain as one of the Top Ten Emerging Technologies for 2016 in its annual list. The WEF report compared the blockchain to the internet, noting that “Like the Internet, the blockchain is an open, global infrastructure upon which other technologies and applications can be built.  And like the Internet, it allows people to bypass traditional intermediaries in their dealings with each other, thereby lowering or even eliminating transaction costs.”

I also believed that supply chain applications would emerge as the killer app for blockchain technologies, that is, an IT application whose value is simple to explain, its use is fairly intuitive, and the application turns out to be so useful that it helps propel the success of new technologies or products. For example, spreadsheets and word processing played a major role in the 1980s adoption of personal computers, as did e-mail and the World Wide Web in the 1990s mainstream success of the internet.

But, it hasn’t quite worked as expected, either for blockchain technologies or for their applications in supply chains. “Blockchain, the technology underpinning bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, for years has been viewed by some companies as a way to drive industry-transforming projects, among them the tracking of assets through complex supply chains,” according to “Blockchain Fails to Gain Traction in the Enterprise,” an article published in the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). “So far that hasn’t happened.”

The Current State and Future Trends of Enterprise Blockchain Technologies

“Blockchain is one of the major tech stories of the past decade,” said a December, 2022 McKinsey article, “What is Blockchain.” “Everyone seems to be talking about it — but beneath the surface chatter there’s not always a clear understanding of what blockchain is or how it works. Despite its reputation for impenetrability, the basic idea behind blockchain is pretty simple,” namely: “Blockchain is a technology that enables the secure sharing of information.”

That same month, a WSJ article, “Blockchain Fails to Gain Traction in the Enterprise,” noted that for years, blockchain “has been viewed by some companies as a way to drive industry-transforming projects, among them the tracking of assets through complex supply chains.” But, “So far, that hasn’t happened,” the article added.

I’ve been closely following the evolution of blockchain technologies for a number of years. Between 2016 and 2023, I’ve posted over 50 entries on blockchain and related technologies in my blog. For example, in 2017 I asked Is Blockchain the Major Next Step in the Evolution of the Internet?, based on the fact that the previous year, the World Economic Forum (WEF) had named The Blockchain as one of its Top 10 Emerging Technologies for 2016. In the blog I wrote that “Like the Internet, the blockchain is an open, global infrastructure upon which other technologies and applications can be built. And like the Internet, it allows people to bypass traditional intermediaries in their dealings with each other, thereby lowering or even eliminating transaction costs.”

Fostering the Development of Interoperable, Open Source Digital Wallets

In September of 2022, the Linux Foundation (LF) announced its intent to launch the Open Wallet Foundation (OWF), — a new collaborative effort to develop open source software that anyone can use to build interoperable wallets supporting a wide range of wallet use cases. After working with a number of enterprises, nonprofits, academic institutions and government entities to organize the effort, the Linux Foundation Europe announced the official formation of the OWF on February 23, 2023.

“The OWF will not publish a wallet itself, nor offer credentials or create new standards,” said the announcement. “Instead, its open source software engine aims to become the core that other organizations and companies leverage to develop their own digital wallets. The wallets will seek feature parity with the best available wallets and interoperability with major cross-border projects such as the EU’s Digital Identity Wallet.”

At the same time, the OWF in partnership with LF Research released a new report, “Why the World Needs an Open Source Digital Wallet Right Now.”

Why Are Enterprises Struggling with Blockchain?

“Blockchain, the technology underpinning bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, for years has been viewed by some companies as a way to drive industry-transforming projects, among them the tracking of assets through complex supply chains,” according to a recent article in the Wall Street Journal, “Blockchain Fails to Gain Traction in the Enterprise.”

“So far that hasn’t happened.”

Blockchain technologies first came to light in 2008 as the architecture underpinning bitcoin, the best known, most valuable, and most widely held cryptocurrency. Over the years, blockchain has evolved in two major directions. One continues to focus on blockchain as the underlying platform for bitcoin, as well as for the large number of cryptocurrencies, digital tokens, and other crypto assets that have since been created. The other focuses on blockchain as a distributed data platform for collaborative applications involving multiple institutions, such as supply chains, financial services and healthcare systems. 

Blockchain made its first appearance in Gartner’s yearly hype cycles in 2016. Despite its being at an early and immature stage, many of its proponents believed that enterprise blockchain platforms were just around the corner, and so it quickly rose to the peak of inflated expectations. But as reality set in, expectations started sliding down in 2021, and by 2022 blockchain platforms had reached the bottom of the trough of disillusionment.

As years go, 2022 was a very tough one for blockchains in general. In the crypto space, bitcoin and most other crypto assets have lost a very large chunk of their value, and numerous crypto companies have collapsed, most prominently FTX. In the enterprise, a number of ventures went belly up. we.trade, a blockchain-based trade finance, shut its operations in June after running out of cash. A few months later, the Australian Securities Exchange canceled its much-delayed blockchain-based clearing system. Most prominently, in late November TradeLens announced that it was discontinuing its blockchain-based global trade platform. Other enterprise blockchain projects, like Walmart’s food traceability application, still carry on but their uptake and progress have been slower than anticipated.

The Importance of Open Source Digital Wallets to the Future of the Internet

On September 13, the Linux Foundation (LF) announced its intent to form the Open Wallet Foundation (OWF) at its Open Source Summit Europe in Dublin. The OWF aims to develop open source software, key building blocks, and best practices that anyone can use as a starting point to build multi-platform, highly secure, privacy-protecting digital wallets. In addition, the OWF will advocate for the wide adoption of open source wallets that can be used to support a wide variety of applications, from payments to digital identities.

The LF was originally founded in 2000 as the Open Source Development Labs to help set the standards for the Linux operating system and support its continued development and commercial adoption. It grew over the years and assumed its current name, Linux Foundation, in 2007. Over the past decade, the LF has undergone a major expansion beyond its original Linux mission. It now has over 1,260 company members and supports hundreds of open source projects. Some of the projects are focused on technology horizontals, - e.g., AI, blockchain, security, cloud, - and others on industry verticals, including energy, automative, government, and health care.

Let me attempt to explain the importance of this announcement by addressing three key questions: what is a digital wallet?; what are digital identities?; and why do we need standard-based, open source digital wallets?

Web3 - Safeguarding Our Identity and Personal Data in the Digital World

Transformative technologies are generally accompanied by a mixture of excitement and confusion in their early years. Something important is going on out there, although there’s no consensus on what it is yet. A major reason for the lack of consensus is that there’s no single dimension around which to define an emerging technology or business model. It’s like the fable of the blind men and the elephant. Each one touches a different part of the elephant. They then compare notes on what they felt, and learn that they are in complete disagreement.

This was the case with the advent of the commercial internet in the early 1990s. A lot was starting to happen around the internet, but we weren’t sure where things were heading. It was pretty clear that a communications revolution was underway: after all, the internet was fundamentally a network of networks, and email was one of its earliest and most popular applications. It was also an information revolution: anyone with a browser, a PC, and an internet connection could now access all kinds of content in the new World Wide Web. And, above all, it promised to be an economic revolution: the internet ushered a historical transition to a new kind of digital economy, including many innovative e-business applications.

Over the past few decades, the term internet has come to encompass a number of related technologies including broadband networks, mobile devices, social media, cloud computing, e-commerce platforms, big data, AI, and more. More recently, we’ve seen the emergence of a new set of technologies and business models that are once more generating excitement, confusion, and multiple opinions on what they’re all about: Web3.

Last week I wrote about web3, referencing two recent books: the just-published Digital Asset Revolution by Alex Tapscott, and the soon-to-be-published Think Blockchain by Jerry Cuomo.

I wrote that web3 aims to usher a more open, entrepreneurial internet and digital economy by replacing today’s corporate mega-platforms with blockchain-based decentralized networks. Web3 would thus give creators, developers and users a way to monetize their contributions, involve them in the governance and decision-making of the platforms supporting their work, and give individuals more privacy and control over their data.

I now want to discuss another perspective on web3 based on The Emerging New Economy: Causes and Consequences of Web 3.0, a recent Stanford seminar by Alex (Sandy) Pentland, MIT professor and faculty director of the MIT Connection Science Research initiative, - with which I’ve long been affiliated as a Connection Science Fellow.

The Potential Impact of Web3 on the Internet and the Digital Economy

A few weeks ago, the Blockchain Research Institute (BRI) announced that its annual global conference would be renamed Web3 Blockchain World, and that the Enterprise Blockchain Awards would now be called the Web3 & Blockchain Transformation Awards.

I’ve been affiliated with BRI for a number of years as a research contributor and as chair of its blockchain awards committee. I was somewhat concerned with the name change, because, as is generally true of new technologies in their early stages, there are multiple views of what web3 is all about. Critics view web3 as little more than hype, a rebranding effort to shed some of the cultural and political baggage of crypto, while supporters believe that web3 represents the future of the internet, upending traditional gatekeepers and ushering a middleman-free digital economy.

Over the following weeks I learned from BRI founder Don Tapscott his reasoning behind the decision that BRI should embrace web3 in its research and events. I read Think Blockchain, a book by IBM Fellow and VP of Blockchain Technologies Jerry Cuomo that will be published later this month. I read the section on Web3 and the New Internet of Value in Digital Asset Revolution, a book by BRI co-founder Alex Tapscott that was just published earlier this week. And I looked at a number of articles from both supporters and critics of web3.

In the end, I became convinced that web3 is now where the commercial internet was in the early 1990s, cloud computing in the late 2000s, and blockchain in the mid 2010s: a very promising set of technologies and applications in their early years. While, at this stage it’s not yet clear how it will evolve, it’s time to start paying serious attention to web3 and try to influence its directions. Let me briefly share my views of web3.

The Tech Trends that Will Most Reshape Companies Over the Next Decade

“In the next decade, we’ll experience more progress than in the past 100 years combined, as technology reshapes health and materials sciences, energy, transportation, and a wide range of other industries and domains,” notes a recent McKinsey study on the The top trends in tech. “The implications for corporations are broad.”

“These trends may not represent the coolest, most bleeding-edge technologies. But they’re the ones drawing the most venture money, producing the most patent filings, and generating the biggest implications for how and where to compete and the capabilities you need to accelerate performance.”

“Unifying and underlying them all is the combinatorial effect of massively faster computation propelling new convergences between technologies; startling breakthroughs in health and materials sciences; an array of new product and service functionalities; and a strong foundation for the reinvention of companies, markets, industries, and sectors.”

What Is Web3, and Could It Usher a New Economic System?

Bitcoin was introduced in 2008 with the release of Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, which explained how to design a decentralized cryptocurrency and digital payment system without the need for central banks or trusted intermediaries. Blockchain, the digital ledger for managing and certifying the validity of bitcoin transactions, was introduced in the same paper.

Over the years blockchain has transcended its original objectives, and has evolved in two major directions. One continues to focus on blockchain as the underlying platform for bitcoin, but it’s also become the platform for the large number of cryptocurrencies, digital tokens, and other cryptoassets that have since been created. The other is focused on the use of blockchain as a trusted distributed data base for private and public sector applications involving multiple institutions, such as supply chains, financial services and healthcare. The cryptocurrency camp is based on public permissionless blockchains, which anyone can join and require some kind of proof-of-work or proof-of-stake systems. The multi-institution camp is based primarily on private permissioned blockchains where participation is restricted to the institutions transacting with each other.

Given my professional interests, I’m particularly interested in the use of blockchains in business and public sector applications for two major reasons. First, I consider blockchain as a major next step in the continuing evolution of the Internet, helping us enhance the security of Internet transactions and data by developing a layer with the standard encrypted services for secure communication, storage and data access. And, longer term, blockchain technologies can significantly improve the efficiency, resilience, and management of complex global applications involving multiple institutions.

But, while I’ve been somewhat skeptical of the crypto camp, a number of intriguing crypto-related topics have recently captured my attention, including Non-Fungible Tokens (NFTs), Decentralized Finance (DeFi), and especially Web3. These various topics were nicely explained by technology columnist Kevin Roose in The Latecomer’s Guide to Crypto, an article in the March 20 SundayBusiness section of the NY Times.

A Blockchain-based Framework for Safeguarding the Integrity of Real-World Assets

Blockchains first came to light in 2008 as the architecture underpinning bitcoin, the best known and most widely held cryptocurrency. It’s a truly brilliant architecture built on decades-old fundamental research in cryptography, distributed data, game theory and other advanced technologies. The blockchain’s original vision was limited to enabling bitcoin users to transact directly with each other with no need for a financial institution or government agency to certify the validity of the transactions. But, like the Internet and other transformative technologies, blockchain has now transcended its original objectives.

Blockchains are a kind of distributed ledger technologies (DLT), which also include non-blockchain DLTs. Over the past decade, an increasing number of people, including me, consider blockchains and DLTs as major next steps in the evolution of the Internet. In 2016 the World Economic Forum (WEF) named The Blockchain in its annual list of Top Ten Emerging Technologies citing its potential to fundamentally change the way markets and governments work. “Like the Internet, the blockchain is an open, global infrastructure upon which other technologies and applications can be built,” said the WEF. “And like the Internet, it allows people to bypass traditional intermediaries in their dealings with each other, thereby lowering or even eliminating transaction costs.”

The Internet is a general purpose network platform that unlocked huge innovations and economic value by significantly lowering the cost of connections and supporting a large variety of applications. A major reason for its ability to support so many different kinds of applications is that the Internet’s foundations, its TCP-IP layer, has stuck to its basic data-transport mission, i.e., just moving bits around.  It has no idea what the bits mean or what they’re trying to accomplish.

The design decisions that shaped the Internet back in the mid-late 1980s didn’t optimize for security and privacy, or for the ability to authenticate transactions between two or more parties. That’s all the responsibility of the applications running on top of the TCP/IP layer, and they each generally do it their own way, sometimes not at all. Not surprisingly, the lack of standards for security, privacy and transactional integrity have been the biggest challenges facing the Internet in our fast growing digital economy.

The Intriguing Nature of Non-Fungible Tokens

The blockchain first came to light in 2008 as the digital ledger for bitcoin transactions. The blockchain creator’s original vision was limited to enabling peer-to-peer bitcoin transactions with no need for a bank or government agency to certify the validity of the transactions. But, like the Internet, electricity and other transformative technologies, blockchain soon transcended its original objectives.

Over the years, blockchain technologies have evolved along two major lines. One continues to focus on blockchain as the underlying platform for bitcoin, as well as a wide variety of cryptoassets, such as digital tokens and cryptocurrencies. The other focuses on the use of blockchain in the business world, - a kind of Internet 2.0. The cryptocurrency camp is based mostly on public permissionless blockchains, which anyone can join and require some kind of proof-of-work or proof-of-stake systems. The business camp, - best characterized by Hyperledger, - is based on private or public permissioned blockchain networks to support transactions among institutions that need not know nor trust each other.

Given my professional history with the Internet and e-business, I’ve been almost exclusively focused on the business camp for two major reasons. First, blockchain technologies can help us enhance the security of Internet transactions and data, by developing a layer with the required standard services and their open source implementations for secure communication, storage and data access. And second, blockchain technologies can significantly improve the efficiency, resilience, and management of supply chains, financial services, and other complex global applications involving multiple institutions across multiple countries.

I have not paid much attention to bitcoin or other cryptoassets. But recently, I’ve become quite intrigued by non-fungible tokens (NFTs). To me, NFTs are further evidence that, as with the Internet of Things (IoT), we’re increasingly living in a hybrid physical-digital world. Let me explain.

How Can Blockchain Become a Truly Transformative Technology?

I first became interested in blockchain technologies when in 2016 the World Economic Forum (WEF) named The Blockchain in its annual list of Top Ten Emerging Technologies citing its potential to fundamentally change the way markets and governments work. The WEF noted that “Like the Internet, the blockchain is an open, global infrastructure upon which other technologies and applications can be built. And like the Internet, it allows people to bypass traditional intermediaries in their dealings with each other, thereby lowering or even eliminating transaction costs.”

The blockchain first came to light in 2008 as the architecture underpinning bitcoin, the best known and most widely held digital currency. The blockchain’s original vision was limited to enabling bitcoin users to transact directly with each other with no need for a bank or government agency to certify the validity of the transactions. But, like the Internet, electricity and other transformative technologies, blockchain has transcended its original objectives. Over the years, blockchains, - and the more encompassing distributed ledger technologies (DLT), - have developed a following of their own as distributed data base architectures with the ability to handle trust-less transactions where no parties need to know nor trust each other for transactions to complete.

Could blockchain/DLT become truly transformative technologies? And if so, what will it take?

The Real Business of Blockchain

“Companies in industries as diverse as finance, sports, health care, retail, oil and gas, and pharma are engaging in a wave of blockchain experiments,” write Gartner analysts David Furlonger and Christophe Uzureau in their recently published book The Real Business of Blockchain.  “Many see it as the solution for bringing trust and transparency to digital environments.” Blockchain has indeed been capturing the imagination of business.  According to a Gartner Research Forecast, the business value-add of blockchain is expected to exceed $3 trillion by 2030, over half that amount by 2025.  But, in plain English, what does this all mean?

“It means you can theoretically do business with an unknown partner located anywhere on the planet and trade any asset at any transaction size and not need a lawyer, a bank, an insurance company, or any other intermediary making sure both of you follow through on what you’ve promised to do,” write the book’s authors.  “Such a solution vastly expands the range of assets that a business could trade.  The arrangement also greatly increases who or what a business could directly trade with, without needing a third party (which would take a piece of the value).”

The Transformational Impact of Blockchain-based Supply Chains: Nine Real-World Use Cases

In May 2016, Don Tapscott published Blockchain Revolution, his 16th book, this one co-written with son Alex.  Don, whom I’ve known for over 25 years, has an uncanny knack for identifying The Next Big Thing and explaining it to everybody else through his books, articles, and speeches.  Don and Alex have each developed a follow-on blockchain book.  Earlier this year, Alex published Financial Services Revolution, while a few weeks ago Don published Supply Chain Revolution, which I will now discuss.

Supply Chain Revolution consists of nine chapters, edited with a foreword by Don.  He opens his foreword by noting, “When we first started working on this book, the coronavirus (COVID-19) hadn’t yet made headlines…  As I’ve become fond of saying, ‘If you’ve got it, a supply chain brought it to you.’  I suppose that, during these times, I could add, ‘If you can’t get it, a supply chain let you down.’”

Each chapter details how blockchain is revolutionizing a different supply chain, from general use cases like global trade to more specific ones like food traceability and manufacturing.  Each was written by some of the world’s top experts on these blockchain applications.

For a few years now, I have argued that supply chain applications will likely emerge as the earliest blockchain killer apps.  Given that blockchain first came to light in 2008 as the architecture underpinning bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, many thought that its killer-apps would be in the financial services industry.  That might well be the case in the future, but given its underlying complexity, transforming the global financial ecosystem will take considerable time and investment.  Supply chain infrastructures and processes are significantly less complex than those in financial services, healthcare, and other industries, which is why several supply chain use cases have already been brought to market over the past few years.

Blockchain and Public Health Solutions

The Blockchain Research Institute (BRI) is a global think tank dedicated to the strategic implications of blockchain technologies to business, government and society.  On March 26, I participated in a virtual roundtable convened by the BRI to discuss the potential use of blockchain technologies for public health solutions.  The roundtable’s findings and recommendations were released in early April in Blockchain Solutions in Pandemics: A Call for Innovation and Transformation in Public Health.

The report identified five key areas where blockchain could be deployed to fight Covid-19 as well as future pandemics: identity, health records and shared data; just-in-time supply chains; sustaining the economy; a rapid response registry for medical professionals; and incentives models to reward responsible behavior.  In each of these areas, the report presented uses cases where blockchain is already being deployed, and recommended a number of blockchain related public health measures that will help better prepare for future pandemics.  Given the broad scope of the report, I will focus my attention on one area in particular: identity, health records and shared data.

The Blockchain Value Framework

In July, 2019, the World Economic Forum and Accenture released Building Value with Blockchain Technology, a white paper aimed at helping organizations evaluate blockchain’s benefits and build an effective business case.  The white paper is based on a global survey of 550 individuals across 13 industries, including automotive, banking, and retail; interviews with CEOs and public sector leaders; and a detailed analysis of 79 blockchain projects.

Survey participants were asked for the top reasons that led their organizations to invest in blockchain solutions.  Across all industries, the top three priorities were “full traceability of information on the blockchain”; “ability to ensure data has not been tampered with”; and “increased security”.  “New business products or services” ranked last among the options for investing in blockchain, suggesting that at this early stage, improving existing products and services is a higher priority than considering new business opportunities.

As is often the case, fear that the train is leaving the station is another powerful motivator for investing in a new, fast growing technology.  Worldwide spending on blockchains solutions is expected to reach almost $3 billion in 2019 and close to $12.5 billion in 2022.  51% of survey respondents mentioned “missing out on developing new products/services” as their top concern if they don’t invest in blockchain in the near future; 23% mentioned “missing out on efficiency gains”; and 15% were concerned with “missing out on cost savings.”

The Transformative Power of Blockchain

“Blockchain matters because no business operates in isolation,” says Blockchain for Business, a recently published book by Jai Arun, Jerry Cuomo, and Nitin Gaur.  “Multiple institutions can achieve more together than any single institution can alone.  By implementing business processes that leverage the collective knowledge of the group, processes can be orders of magnitude more cost-efficient.  New processes that were not possible before blockchain, can be created.  This opens new opportunities and creates competitive advantage for many businesses.”

Since it fist came to light over a decade ago as the public, distributed ledger for the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, people have struggled to understand what blockchain is about and what it’s good for.  This is not unusual for potentially transformative technologies in their early stages, as was the case with the Internet in the early-mid 1990s.  The key question is whether blockchain has the potential to become a truly transformative technology over time.  Most everyone agrees.  According to Gartner, the business value-add of blockchain will be more than $176 billion by 2025, and will exceed $3.1 trillion by 2030.

There are two fairly distinct blockchains camps, - one primarily focused on blockchain as the underlying platform for cryptocurrencies, the other on the use of blockchain in the business world.  The cryptocurrency camp, - best characterized by Bitcoin, - is mostly based on public permissionless blockchains, which operate anonymously and require some kind of proof-of-work or proof-of-stake systems.  The second camp, - best characterized by Hyperledger, - is mostly interested in business applications, and is based on the use of private or public permissioned blockchains networks to handle interactions between institutions that are known each other.

The Economic Value of Digital Identity

Identity plays a major role in our everyday life.  It’s the key that determines the particular transactions in which we can rightfully participate as well as the information we’re entitled to access.  Think about going to an office, getting on a plane, logging on to a website or making an online purchase.  We generally don’t pay much attention to the management of our identity credentials unless something goes seriously wrong.

For much of history, our identity systems have been based on face-to-face interactions and on physical documents and processes.  But, the transition to a digital economy requires radically different identity systems.  In a world that’s increasingly governed by digital transactions and data, our existing methods for managing security and privacy are proving inadequate.  Data breaches, large-scale fraud, and identity theft have become more common.  In addition, a significant portion of the world’s population lacks the credentials needed to participate in the digital economy.  Our existing methods for managing digital identities are far from adequate.

A few weeks ago, the McKinsey Global Institute released Digital Identification: A key to inclusive growth, a comprehensive report at over 100 pages that examined the state of digital identities around the world.  The report analyzed the value creation potential of good digital IDs for individuals and institutions, as well as the potential risks and challenges.  McKinsey’s analysis was informed by nearly 100 concrete uses of digital IDs in seven countries: Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, the UK and the US.

Blockchain - the Networked Ecosystem is the Business

A few weeks ago I attended two back-to-back blockchain events in Toronto, - the Blockchain Research Institute All-Member Summit followed by the inaugural Blockchain Revolution Global conference.  Both events included a number of excellent talks and panels.  One of the presentations I particularly enjoyed was Scaling Blockchain for the Enterprise: Emerging Business Models, by IBM’s Andrew Martin and Smitha Soman.  Their presentation was based on their recently published report Building your blockchain advantage.

Since it first came to light a decade ago as the public, distributed ledger for the Bitcoin cryptocurrency, people have struggled to understand what blockchain is all about and what it’s truly good for.  This is not unusual for potentially transformative technologies in their early stages, as was the case with the Internet, and is still the case with AI.  The key question is whether blockchain has the potential to become a truly transformative technology over time.  With few exceptions, the answer is positive.

The essence of blockchain, notes the report, is that the unit of competition is the networked ecosystem, no longer a single enterprise.  “As blockchain adoption continues to gather momentum, organizations must approach their blockchain strategies with the same rigor and commitment as any other new and transformative strategies.  They can’t just fall back on prototypes alone.  They need to build a robust business case for blockchain that includes a fair incentive model to attract all the partners required for the success of their networks.”

What Might Work Look Like in 2030?

A number of recent studies have taken a close look at the the future of work over the next 10 to 15 years.  For example, a December, 2017 report by McKinsey examined which jobs will likely be displaced by automation through 2030, as well as which jobs are likely to be created over the same period, based on data from 46 countries.

McKinsey’s overall conclusion was that a growing technology-based economy will create a significant number of new occupations which will more than offset declines in occupations displaced by automation.  However, “while there may be enough work to maintain full employment to 2030 under most scenarios, the transitions will be very challenging - matching or even exceeding the scale of shifts out of agriculture and manufacturing we have seen in the past.”

Another report, The Changing Nature of Work, - published by the World Bank in October, 2018, - concluded that our problem is not that there won’t be enough work in the future.  The key problem is that, in many countries, the workforce isn’t prepared for a fast unfolding future. Neglecting investments in human capital, - i.e., the sum total of a population’s health, skills, knowledge, and experience, - will dramatically weaken a country’s competitiveness.

Let me now discuss Eight Futures of Work Scenarios and their Implications, a white paper published in January, 2018 by the World Economic Forum (WEF) in collaboration with the Boston Consulting Group (BCG).  The paper considered eight distinct scenarios on what work might be like by 2030, based on different combinations of three of the most impactful and uncertain variables affecting the future of work: the rate of technological change; the evolution of learning in the workforce; and the magnitude of talent mobility across geographies.

Is Blockchain Now Transitioning to a More Mundane and Useful Era?

Blockchain was created around a decade ago as the public, distributed ledger for the Bitcoin cryptocurrency.  Most everyone agrees that it’s a truly brilliant architecture, built on decades-old fundamental research in cryptography, distributed data, distributed computing, game theory and other advanced technologies.  When it first came to light, blockchain had no broader goals beyond supporting Bitcoin.  But, as was the case with the Internet and World Wide Web, blockchain soon transcended its original objectives.

In 2016, blockchain made the list of the World Economic Forum’s Top Ten Emerging Technologies.  The WEF report compared blockchain to the Internet, noting that “Like the Internet, the blockchain is an open, global infrastructure upon which other technologies and applications can be built.  And like the Internet, it allows people to bypass traditional intermediaries in their dealings with each other, thereby lowering or even eliminating transaction costs.”

That same year, blockchain made its first appearance in Gartner’s yearly hype cycles, where it’s remained for the past three years.  In 2017, Gartner noted that “blockchain might seem like it’s just around the corner.  However, most initiatives are still in alpha or beta stage… Long-term, Gartner believes this technology will lead to a reformation of whole industries.”

In a recent article in the MIT Technology Review, associate editor Mike Orcutt succinctly summarized the current state of blockchain: “In 2017, blockchain technology was a revolution that was supposed to disrupt the global financial system.  In 2018, it was a disappointment.  In 2019, it will start to become mundane… After the Great Crypto Bull Run of 2017 and the monumental crash of 2018, blockchain technology won’t make as much noise in 2019.  But it will become more useful.”

Blockchain Beyond the Hype

A recent issue of The Economist included a special report on cryptocurrencies and blockchains.  The Economist’s overall conclusion was that “Bitcoin has been a failure as a means of payment, but thrilling for speculators.”  Its assessment of blockchain was somewhat more positive.  “For blockchains, the jury is still out,… For all the technology’s potential, though, most attempts to use it remain tentative,…  The advantages of blockchains are often oversold.” 

In 2016, blockchain made the list of the World Economic Forum’s Top Ten Emerging Technologies.  That same year, blockchain also made its first appearance in Gartner’s yearly hype cycles.  Even The Economist has been guilty of overselling when it featured blockchain in the cover of its October 31, 2015 issue with the tag line “The Trust Machine: How the technology behind Bitcoin could change the world.” 

Is there too much hype surrounding blockchain?  Absolutely,… but not surprising.  All potentially transformative technologies are oversold in their early stages.  Remember the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s.  Blockchain is still in its early phases of experimentation and adoption.  Much work remains to be done on standards, platforms, interoperability, applications and governance. 

But, does blockchain have the potential to become a truly transformative technology over time?  Yes, said McKinsey in a recent article on the strategic value of blockchain beyond the hype.  The article starts out by acknowledging that all the hype around blockchain makes it difficult to nail down not just blockchain's long term strategic value, but also what it actually is and what it isn’t in the present. To make sure everyone is on the same page, the article first recaps what it calls “the nuts and bolts of blockchain.”  Let me start by summarizing blockchain’s nuts and bolts.

Blockchain’s Potential for Environmental Applications

In mid-September, the World Economic Forum (WEF) released Building Block(chain)s for a Better Planet, a report that examined how blockchain technologies could be harnessed to address serious environmental issues, better manage our shared global environment and help drive sustainable growth and value creation.  The report outlines some of the world’s most-pressing environmental challenges and highlights eight blockchain-based game changers that could lead to transformative solutions to these pressing problems.

The WEF report includes a short blockchain tutorial.  Blockchain is essentially “a new, decentralized and global computational infrastructure that could transform many existing processes in business, governance and society.”  Blockchain technologies promise to significantly improve the efficiency and security of business transactions and data sharing among participants in a global ecosystem, such as supply chains, financial services, and similar complex applications involving multiple institutions.

But, the hype surrounding blockchain, can tempt solution designers to try to use it for applications that it’s not suitable for.  The report recommends that designers first consider three key questions:

• Will blockchain solve your actual problem; is a distributed architecture vital to your solution?
• Have you built the right ecosystem of stakeholders; do they understand and trust how blockchain is being used?
• Can you acceptably manage the downside risks or unintended consequences, e.g., scalability, performance, implementation risks?

Cryptocurrencies and Blockchains - How Are They Doing After 10 Years?

Bitcoin was created about a decade ago, with the release of the original design paper, Bitcoin: A Peer-to-Peer Electronic Cash System, under the pen name of Satoshi Nakamoto.  Bitcoin aimed to become a decentralized cryptocurrency and digital payment system that would enable the secure exchange of digital money without the need for central government authorities or financial intermediaries.  It introduced the blockchain, - which most everyone agrees is a truly brilliant architecture built on decades-old fundamental research in cryptography, distributed data, distributed computing, game theory and other advanced technologies.

How are they doing after 10 years?  The September 1 issue of The Economist includes a special report on cryptocurrencies and blockchains, with nine articles on the subject. The report’s overview article doesn’t mince words in articulating its overall assessment: “Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are useless.  For blockchains, the jury is still out.”

“Bitcoin has been a failure as a means of payment, but thrilling for speculators,” it further added.  Its price has been subject to wild fluctuations over the past two years.  It rose from around $600 in September, 2016, to $6,000 in September, 2017, reaching a peak of over $19,000 in December, 2017, before falling to around $7,000 earlier this year.  It’s been hovering between $6,500 and $7,500 for the past few months.  Other cryptocurrencies have experienced similar price fluctuations.  “That has made a few people very rich (just 100 accounts own 19% of all existing bitcoin), encouraged others to play for quick gains and left some nursing substantial losses.”

The Identity Challenge: On the Internet, Nobody Knows You're a Dog

I recently read Better Identity in America, a report by the Better Identity Coalition, an organization launched earlier this year to focus on promoting the development and adoption of solutions for identity verification and authentication.  The report outlines a policy agenda for improving the privacy and security of digital systems and help combat identity fraud.

How bad is the problem?  Data breaches, large-scale fraud, and identity theft are becoming more common.  In 2017, there were 16.7 million victims of identity fraud in the US, causing a loss of $16.8 billion; there was a 44.7% increase in US data breaches between 2016 and 2017 and a 30% rise in online shopping fraud; 179 million personal information records were exposed to data breaches, 69% of which were identity theft incidents.

The report notes that “the ability to offer high-value transactions and services online is being tested more than ever, due in large part to the challenges of proving identity online. The lack of an easy, secure, reliable way for entities to verify identities or attributes of people they are dealing with online creates friction in commerce, leads to increased fraud and theft, degrades privacy, and hinders the availability of many services online.”

As the report reminds us, the extent of this challenge was famously captured back in 1993 by Peter Steiner’s New Yorker cartoon with the caption On the Internet, nobody knows you’re a dog.  25 year later, the cartoon still perfectly describes the identity challenge.  If anything, the challenge is even more serious in 2018, given that the volume and variety of online transaction services are greater than ever before.

The Emergence of a Blockchain-Based Token Economy

Blockchain Revolution, published in May of 2016 by Don Tapscott and Alex Tapscott, was one of the first books that explained the promise of blockchain technologies to the general public.  Its central argument is that for nearly four decades, the Internet has been great for reducing the costs of searching, collaborating, and exchanging information.  But, it has serious limitations for business and economic activity.  “Doing business on the Internet requires a leap of faith,” the book noted.  The Internet was designed to move information, but it’s lacked the necessary trust, security and privacy safeguards to move assets of value.  With blockchain, we’re now seeing the emergence of such an Internet of value.  “Now for the first time ever we have a native digital medium for value, through which we can manage, store, and transfer any asset.”

An updated edition of Blockchain Revolution was published this past June.  A lot has happened with blockchain in the intervening two years.  The updated edition explains some of these recent developments in a new preface, including cryptoassets, permissioned networks, identity and supply chains.  I’ll focus my comments on the emergence of a blockchain-based token economy, driven by the explosive growth in the value and variety of cryptoassets.

When the original book was published, the entire cryptoasset market had a value of $9 billion, - mostly dominated by the value of Bitcoin at $7 billions, while Ether, the Ethereum cryptocurreny, had reached around $1 billion.  The new edition estimates that as of March, 2018, the cryptoasset market was around $400 billion in size, a value subject to rapid fluctuations.  In addition, a wide variety of cryptoassets have been developed over the past two years. 

The Promise and Current State of Blockchain

I recently participated in a blockchain panel at a conference of senior supply chain executives from a variety of companies.  I welcomed the opportunity to learn how these real-world executives feel about blockchain, as well as how to best communicate the promise and current state of this emerging and potentially transformative technology.  Let me share a few of my observations.

Before our panel started, the executives were asked how they viewed blockchain.  In general, they felt that there was too much hype surrounding blockchain, were skeptical about its value to supply chain systems, but expressed a wait-and-see attitude.  They were then asked how many were conducting blockchain prototypes in their companies.  The majority raised their hands. 

I thought that their views and subsequent questions and comments during the panel succinctly captures the current state of blockchain in the business world: skeptical, turned off by the hype, but hedging their bets by getting on the learning curve with prototypes and experimentation.

The moderator first asked each panelist to address the audience’s skepticism about blockchain.  What, in our opinion, is the key value of blockchain?  I said that I look at the value of blockchain through two complementary lenses: enhancing the security of the Internet, and reducing the inefficiencies and overheads in applications, like supply chains, involving multiple institutions.

A Framework for the Safe Management of Digital Identities and Data

Identity plays a major role in everyday life.  Think about going to an office, getting on a plane, logging to a website or making an online purchase.  Identity is the key that determines the particular transactions in which we can rightfully participate as well as the information we’re entitled to access.   But, we generally don’t pay much attention to the management of our identity credentials unless something goes seriously wrong.

For much of history, our identity systems have been based on face-to-face interactions and on physical documents and processes.  But, the transition to a digital economy requires radically different identity systems.  In a world that’s increasingly governed by digital transactions and data, our existing methods for managing security and privacy are proving inadequate.  Data breaches, large-scale fraud, and identity theft are becoming more common.  In addition, a significant portion of the world’s population lacks the credentials needed to participate in the digital economy.  Our existing methods for managing digital identities are far from adequate.

As explained in A Blueprint for Digital Identity, - a 2016 report by the World Economic Forum, - identity is essentially a collection of information or attributes associated with a specific individual.  These attributes fall into three main categories:  inherent - attributes intrinsic to an individual, - e.g., age, height, date of birth, fingerprints, color of eyes, retinal scans;  assigned - attributes attached to but not intrinsic to the individual - e.g., e-mail address, telephone numbers, social security, drivers license, passport number; and accumulated - attributes gathered or developed over time - e.g., health records, job history, home addresses, schools attended.

While mostly associated with individuals, identities can also be assigned to legal entities like corporations, partnerships and trusts; to physical entities like cars, buildings, smartphones and IoT devices; and to digital entities like patents, software programs and data sets.

Data attributes are generally siloed within different private and public sector institutions, each using its data for its own purposes.  But to reach a higher level of privacy and security, we need to establish trusted data ecosystems, which requires the exchange and sharing of data across a variety of institutions.  The more data sources a trusted ecosystem has access to, the higher the probability of detecting fraud and identity theft while reducing false positives.  In addition, an ecosystem with a variety of data sources can help foster economic inclusiveness by certifying the identities and credit worthiness of poor people with no banking affiliation.

However, safeguarding the data used to validate identities creates security and privacy issues of its own.  It’s unsafe to gather all the needed attributes within one institution or central data location, making it a target for data breaches.  But, it’s also highly unfeasible, as few institutions will let their critical data out of their premises.

Blockchain and Business Process Transformation

One can look at the transformational impact of IT on companies and industries through a variety of lenses, - e.g., products and services, revenue and profit, sales and support, market strategy.  One of the most important such lenses is the impact of IT on business processes, that is, on how work is actually done across the various functions of an organization. 

Examining the impact of IT over the past several decades through a process point of view, one can identify three distinct phases: first came process automation in the early years of IT, followed around the 1990s by enterprise-wide process reengineering and management.  The third phase, is now starting, focused on the processes and transactions that determine how institutions interact with each other around the world.  Let me discuss each of these phases. 

Blockchain Killer-Apps

A killer app is an IT application whose value is simple to explain, its use is fairly intuitive, and the application turns out to be so useful that it helps propel the success of a product or service.  Spreadsheets and word processing were major factors in the 1980s adoption of personal computers, for example.  A decade later, e-mail, and the World Wide Web played crucial roles in the mainstream success of the Internet.  While there are a number of strong candidates for smartphone killer-apps, navigation and music are among the most widely used.

Blockchain has been in the news lately, but beyond knowing that it has something to do with payments and digital currencies, most people don’t know what blockchain is or why they should care.  A major part of the reason is that we still don’t have the kind of easy-to-explain blockchain killer-apps that propelled the Internet forward.

Blockchain has yet to cross the chasm from technology enthusiasts and visionaries to the wider marketplace that’s more interested in business value and applications.  There’s considerable research on blockchain technologies, platforms and applications as well as market experimentation in a number of industries - roughly where the Internet was in the mid-late 1980s: full of promise but still confined to a niche audience.

In addition, outside of digital currencies, -a somewhat exotic topic of interest to a relatively small audience, - blockchain applications are primarily aimed at institutions.  And, given that blockchain is all about the creation, exchange and management of valuable assets, its applications are significantly more complex to understand and explain than Internet applications.

The management of information is quite different from the management of transactions.  The latter, especially for transactions dealing with valuable or sensitive assets, requires deep contractual negotiations among companies and jurisdictional negotiations among governments.  Moreover, since blockchain is inherently multi-institutional in nature, its applications involve close collaboration among companies, governments and other entities.

Blockchain and the Promise of an Open, Decentralized Internet

The January 21 issue of the NY Times Magazine included a very good article, Beyond the Bitcoin Bubble, by science writer Steven Johnson.  His article aims to explain what blockchain, cryptocurrencies and related technologies are all about as well as their potential impact on the economy and society.  These are not only complex but esoteric subjects, as nicely illustrated in this funny video.  While blockchain and Bitcoin have been frequently in the news lately, beyond knowing that they have something to do with money, most people don’t really know what they are or why they should care.

This is not surprising.  In their early years, it’s hard for most people to appreciate the potential of a transformative technology.  There’s generally a considerable time-lag between the time we start reading articles about their exciting potential and their adoption by companies and industries across the marketplace.  This is particularly the case for general purpose technologies, like electricity, the Internet and blockchain, which are the most potentially transformative due to their widespread use.   Their deployment time-lags are longer because attaining their full benefits requires a number of complementary co-inventions and investments, including additional technologies, applications, processes, business models, and regulatory policies.

Blockchain and the Music Industry: Turning Pennies into Dollars

Just about every industry has been significantly transformed in the past few decades.  But few have been as disrupted as the music industry.  Everything seems to be changing at once, from the way content is produced and delivered, to the sources of revenue and profits.  Digital technologies, - the Internet, smartphones, cloud computing, … - have literally turned dollars into pennies.  Now, blockchain and related technologies may once more play a major role in the music industry, - this time helping to turn those pennies back into dollars.

We’re truly surrounded by music as never before, - in a wide variety of styles; in physical and digital formats; over the Internet, satellite, and broadcasts; in mobile devices and home music systems.  But, the shift from physical to digital, and then from downloads to streaming have wreaked havoc on the business of music.  US retail revenues of recorded music were close to $14 billion in 1998 before starting their decline.  According to the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), revenues fell from roughly $12 billion in 2006 to around $7 billion in 2010.  They stayed flat at $7 billion though 2015, starting to increase in 2016 mostly due to a growth in paid streaming music subscriptions.  Revenues are expected to be around $8 billion in 2017.

Turning dollars into pennies succinctly captures the music industry’s precipitous revenue declines.  As this article noted, “During the heyday of the 80s, the music industry was rolling in so much money it could afford to leave some on the table… which it often did…  There were so many dollars coming in, they didn’t bother paying attention to the pennies.  Well, as we all know those days are gone.  And after a decade of losses from its traditional revenue stream (sales), we’ve seen the music industry forced to look for revenue in new places and in different ways.  In the absence of dollars, the pennies now matter.”

As a result, the music industry now finds itself trying to figure out how to keep track of all those pennies in the hope of turning them back into dollars.  In the first half of 2017, streaming services accounted for 62% of the total market, with digital downloads and physical sales accounting for 19% and 16% respectively, said the RIAA.  But streaming pays royalties in fractions of pennies, so legislation, new business models and technological innovations are needed to make sure that all the necessary data are efficiently collected so the various artists involved in a song are paid.

The Evolution Toward Digital Supply Chains

Two years ago, a group of leading CEOs from around the world met in China to discuss the major issues facing their companies in the global marketplace.  The meeting was organized by the Center for Global Enterprise (CGE), - the nonprofit research institution founded by former IBM Chairman and CEO Sam Palmisano to study the contemporary corporation, globalization, economic trends, and their impact on society.  The CEOs at the meeting in China concluded that their highest research priority was the evolution toward Digital Supply Chains (DSC), and its potential to transform organizations and the conduct of business around the world.  In response, the Digital Supply Chain Institute (DSCI) was launched a few months later.

In October of 2016, the DSCI, in partnership with CREATe.org  published its first research paper, Digital Supply Chains: A Frontside Flip.  The paper explains the key differences between traditional and digital supply chains, and provides practical advice to help companies prepare for the digital supply chains of the future

The traditional supply chain has evolved over the years as a crucial process used by many companies for the production, handling, and/or distribution of their products or services.  Traditional supply chains generally comprise five separate back-office functions: transport, warehousing, purchasing, marketing and finance.  Their key objective has been to improve the efficiency of getting goods and services from suppliers to customers, through a series of intermediate steps including manufacturing, distributors and retailers.  But, these supply chains were quite fragmented, with limited interactions and information sharing among their various functions and steps.

Over the past couple of decades, the explosive growth of the Internet has made it much easier for companies to transact with each other around the world.  The connectivity and universal reach of the Internet has enabled companies to integrate and better coordinate all their various processes, as well as to go beyond the boundaries of the firm and develop highly sophisticated global supply chains.  Vertically integrated firms have evolved into virtual enterprises, increasingly relying on supply chain partners for many of the manufacturing and services functions once done in-house.

The DSCI paper argues that it’s time to focus on the transformation of the whole supply chain process, not just in further increases in efficiency.  Their traditional linear nature is increasingly misaligned with the more networked nature of today’s global production.

Blockchain and the Future of the Firm

Last week I wrote about Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future, a recently published book by MIT’s Andy McAfee and Erik Brynjolfsson.  The book is organized into three main sections: Mind and Machine, Product and Platform, and Core and Crowd, each based on  a business trend that’s significantly reshaping the business world.  I based my discussion on the Mind and Machine section, which I found to be an excellent explanation of recent advances in artificial intelligence.

I now want to focus my attention on the provocative questions raised in the book’s latter chapters.  “In this era of powerful new technologies, do we still need companies?”  How are firms likely to evolve given the continuing advances of Internet-based technologies, as well as emerging blockchain-based technologies such as distributed ledgers and smart contracts?  “Are companies passé” in an increasingly decentralized economy?

Following the Great Depression and WW2, the country welcomed the stability promised by corporate capitalism.  Big, multinational companies dominated most industries, - GM, Ford and Chrysler in cars, Citibank, American Express and Morgan Stanley in finance, and Esso/Exxon, Mobil and Texaco in oil and gas.  It was an era characterized by bureaucratic corporate cultures, - not unlike military hierarchies - focused on organizational power and orderly prosperity.

This all started to change a few decades later with the advent of a more innovative, fast moving entrepreneurial economy.  The 1980s saw the rise of young, high-tech companies, - e.g., Microsoft, Apple, Oracle, Sun Microsystems, - and Silicon Valley became the global hub for innovation, emulated by regions around the world.  Turtlenecks and jeans replaced blue suits, white shirts, and ties.

The advent of the Internet and e-commerce pushed all these trends into hyperdrive in the 1990s.  The Internet made it much easier for companies to transact with each other around the world.  Vertically integrated firms evolved into virtual enterprises, increasingly relying on supply chain partners for many of the functions once done in-house.  Management experts noted that large firms were no longer necessary and would in fact be at a disadvantage in the Internet era when competing against agile, innovative smaller companies.

Platforms, Blockchains, and the Evolution of Trust

“In primitive economies, people traded mostly with members of their village and community,” wrote David Brooks in a June, 2014 NY Times OpEd, - The Evolution of Trust.  “Trust was face to face.  Then, in the mass economy we’ve been used to, people bought from large and stable corporate brands, whose behavior was made more reliable by government regulation.  But now there is a new trust calculus, powered by both social and economic forces.”

Brooks’ article focused on the rise of the on-demand economy, - aka, the collaborative, sharing, peer-to-peer economy, - and in particular on the surprising success of Airbnb.  Rooms for rent in boarding houses and child and pet care services are nothing new.  What’s new is the impact of technology, platforms and blockchain in particular, on the growing on-demand economy.  Companies are being disrupted as consumers are now able to deal with each other bypassing traditional hotels and taxi services.  All kinds of on-demand products and services are now coming to market.

The on-demand economy wouldn’t be possible without the mobile devices and platforms that enable peer-to-peer transactions among individuals any time and place; the digital payment systems that reliably and securely broker the transactions between buyers and sellers; and the social reputation systems, where people rank buyers and sellers, - a critical requirement for the smooth functioning of collaborative markets like Airbnb.  In the digital economy, our online reputations follow us everywhere, whether we are the renters or the ones renting, the service providers or the service consumers.

Should Your Company Get on the Blockchain Learning Curve Now or Wait?

A few weeks ago I wrote about the current state of blockchain.  In particular, I asked whether blockchain is ready to cross the chasm from its early adopters, - who are already involved with blockchain in one way or another, - to the considerably larger set of mainstream users who may be considering blockchain but are waiting for results and assurances before jumping in.

I explored this question by comparing blockchain today to the Internet in the early-mid 1990s, which is roughly when the Internet made its own transition from early adopters to mainstream users.  My conclusion was that blockchain isn’t quite ready for this important transition.  It’s still in its early adopters stage, - perhaps akin to the Internet in the late1980s.  A lot is going on with blockchain, so much so that last year the World Economic Forum (WEF) named The Blockchain one of its Top Ten Emerging Technologies for 2016.  But much remains to be done in key areas, including standards, applications and governance.  Blockchain has the potential to make our digital infrastructures much more secure, efficient and trustworthy, but it will take time.

The Internet in the early-mid 1990s was clearly more advanced than blockchain is today.  On the other hand, the business environment in 2017 is quite different from the one back then.  The Internet and associated technologies like smartphones and cloud computing have significantly lowered the costs of collaboration and experimentation, enabling innovations to emerge more rapidly.  In addition to providing a good set of lessons for blockchain’s adoption, the Internet is smoothing the way for the development of blockchain platforms, applications and ecosystems.

What should  your company do?  Get on the blockchain learning curve now or wait until the technology is more mature before jumping in?  Become an early adopter of this potentially transformative technology, or run the risk of being left behind by more aggressive competitors?  How should your company decide when and how to best embrace a disruptive new technology like blockchain?

Is Blockchain Ready to “Cross the Chasm”? Lessons from the Internet

Earlier this year, IBM conducted the largest study to date on the state of adoption of blockchain.  The study interviewed almost 3,000 C-Suite executives from over 80 countries and 20 industries to learn about their company’s blockchain plans.  Survey responses where classified into three groups: explorers, investigators and passives.

Explorers are already involved in blockchain pilots and experiments.  They make up an average of 8 percent across all industries, with higher activity in certain industries like financial services.  25 percent of organizations are investigators, - considering but not yet ready to deploy blockchains, and 67 percent are passives, - not considering blockchains so far.

These survey results are not surprising for a technology as new and complex as blockchain.  With such technologies, you typically have a relatively small number of early adopters.  A larger number of followers are waiting to learn from the early adopters’ experiences, while the laggards are not yet sure what the technology is about or if it applies to them.

On the Governance of Blockchain: Lessons from the Internet

A few weeks ago, the World Economic Forum (WEF) released Realizing the Potential of Blockchain, a report by Don Tapscott and Alex Tapscott, authors of Blockchain Revolution which was published in May, 2016, and founders of the recently launched Blockchain Research Institute.  “The last few decades brought us the internet of information.  We are now witnessing the rise of the internet of value,” wrote the authors in the report’s Executive Summary.  “Like the first generation of the internet, this second generation promises to disrupt business models and transform industries… pulling us into a new era of openness, decentralization and global inclusion.”

“However, this extraordinary technology may be stalled, sidetracked, captured or otherwise suboptimized depending on how all the stakeholders behave in stewarding this set of resources - i.e. how it is governed,” they add in a strong note of caution.  “How we govern the internet of information as a global resource serves as a model for how to govern this new resource: through a multi-stakeholder approach using what we call global governance networks.”

I totally agree.

The Internet and World Wide Web brought a badly needed culture of collaboration and standards to the IT industry.  In the 1980s, it was quite difficult to get different IT systems to talk to each other.  Just sending an e-mail across two different applications from two different vendors was quite a chore, as was sharing information across disparate systems.  Then in the 1990s, the open Internet protocol, - TCP/IP, - was widely embraced by the general IT marketplace, making it possible to interconnect systems and applications from any vendors.  Internet e-mail protocols, - SMTP, MIME, POP, IMAP, - enabled people to easily communicate with anyone on any system.  At the same time,  the Web’s open standards, - HTML, HTTP, URLs enabled any PC connected to the Internet to access information on any web server anywhere in the world.

A similar story played out with Unix.  In the 1980s, Unix became a popular operating system for technical workstations, supercomputers and other kinds of systems.  Every vendor had developed its own version of Unix, - IBM’s AIX, Sun’s Solaris, HP’s HP-UX, and several others, - and they were all somewhat different and incompatible, making it difficult to port applications across these different flavors of Unix.  Attempts to unify UNIX were not successful.  Finally, in the 1990s Linux emerged as a Unix-like operating system that over time was embraced by just about all vendors.

Is Blockchain the Major Next Step in the Evolution of the Internet?

In the Fall of 1995, IBM made the decision to embrace the Internet and make it the centerpiece of its strategic directions.  As the general manager of the newly formed IBM Internet Division, I spent a lot of time thinking how to best articulate the promise of the Internet.  Looking back, I often described that promise using some variation of: The Internet has the potential to transform the economy, society and our personal lives.

It’s taken a a few additional innovations, - e.g., smartphones, social media, cloud computing, big data, IoT, - for its historical impact to be fully evident, but by now, most everyone agrees that the Internet has become one of the most transformative technologies the world has ever seen, - right up there with electricity, telecommunications, cars and airplanes.

About a year ago, the World Economic Forum (WEF) published its annual list of the Top Ten Emerging Technologies for 2016, and named The Blockchain as one of the technologies in the 2016 list.  The WEF report compared the blockchain to the Internet, noting that “Like the Internet, the blockchain is an open, global infrastructure upon which other technologies and applications can be built.  And like the Internet, it allows people to bypass traditional intermediaries in their dealings with each other, thereby lowering or even eliminating transaction costs.”

As Don Tapscott and Alex Tapscott wrote in the opening paragraph of their recently published book  Blockchain Revolution, “It appears that once again, the technological genie has been unleashed from its bottle.  Summoned by an unknown person or persons with unclear motives, at an uncertain time in history, the genie is now at our service for another kick of the can - to transform the economic power grid and the old order of human affairs for the better.  If we will it.”

The Emerging Data Economy

The Economist’s May 6 issue referred to data in its cover as the world’s most valuable resource.  Its lead article, - Data is giving rise to a new economy, - called it the fuel of the future.  “Data are to this century what oil was to the last one: a driver of growth and change.”  Both oil refineries and data centers fulfill similar roles: “producing crucial feedstocks for the world economy.”  Much of modern life would not exist without the cars, plastics and drugs made possible by oil refineries.  Similarly, data centers “power all kinds of online services and, increasingly, the real world as devices become more and more connected.”

Data has been closely intertwined with our digital technology revolution since the early days of the IT industry.  Data processing was the term then used to describe the applications of IT to automate highly structured business processes, e.g., financial transactions, inventory management, airline reservations.  Over time, increasingly sophisticated applications were developed to better manage key business operations along with their associated data, including enterprise resource planning, customer relationship management and human resources.  Beyond their use in operations, the information generated by these various applications was collected in data warehouses, and a variety of business intelligence tools were used to analyze the data and generate management reports.

These commercial applications dealt mostly with structured information in those early years of computing.  But at the same time, the scientific community was developing tools for managing, analyzing and visualizing the high volumes of much more unstructured data generated by their  experiments and observations.  Physicists, astronomers, biologists, and other scientists and engineers were developing methodologies and architectures for dealing with very large volumes of unstructured data, as well as analytical techniques, like data mining, for discovering patterns and extracting insights from all that data.

Then came the explosive growth of the Internet in the mid-1990s.  Ever since, digital technologies have been permeating just about every nook and cranny of the economy, society and our personal lives.  Data is now being generated by just about everything and everybody around us, including the growing volume of online and offline transactions, web searches, social media interactions, billions of smart mobile devices and 10s of billions of smart IoT sensors.

What’s the Value of Blockchain?

A few weeks ago I attended the IBM Blockchain Summit 2017 in New York.  The Summit included a number of talks and panels, and - most important, - presentations of concrete blockchain use cases IBM has been working on in a number of areas, including finance, supply chains and healthcare.  Such real-world use cases are particularly important when introducing a new, complex set of technologies in the marketplace.  They’re the best way of getting on the learning curve for the new technologies as well as of explaining the kinds of problems they help us address.

Blockchain has the potential to transform our economic and social systems, but such a transformation is still many years away.  Like the Internet, blockchain is a foundational technology, whose adoption process is gradual, incremental and steady, unlike the hockey stick adoption we typically associate with disruptive technologies as defined by Clayton Christensen 20 years ago.  Foundational transformations must overcome many barriers, - technological, organizational, governance, political, - which is why they take a long time to play out.

Lest we forget,  TCP/IP, - the communications protocol that defines the Internet to this day, - was first adopted in the mid-1980s.  So were the protocols used in e-mail, - the first widely used Internet application which enabled its user base in government, universities and research institutions to easily communicate with each other.  It wasn’t until the late 1980s that the Internet was first opened up to public, commercial users.  General Internet adoption took off a few years later with the advent of the World Wide Web and the Web browser, and its transformational power wasn’t fully evident until the late 2000s, with the explosive growth of smartphones and the mobile Internet.

The concrete uses cases presented by IBM as it defines its blockchain strategy brought to mind the approach we took in the early days of formulating IBM’s Internet strategy, which I was closely involved with.

The Growing Importance of Storytelling in the Business World

Communications have played a major role in my work over the past few decades.  During this period, I was involved in organizing emerging business opportunities at IBM, including the Internet and Linux.  Since retiring from IBM in 2007, I’ve continued my involvement with technology-based initiatives, - AI and blockchain most recently, - through my consulting and academic activities as well as the weekly blogs that I’ve now been writing for the past dozen years.

Over the years I’ve learned that when trying to explain a complex new concept or product, it’s important to engage in a kind-of conversation with your intended audience, where you talk about what's in your mind, your questions, your doubts, what you know and what you don't know.  In short, you’re telling a story about the concept, product or brand you’re trying to explain.

While storytelling is mostly associated with entertainment, education and culture, it also plays a major role in business.  Storytelling is widely used in the development of brands for products as well as companies.  And, the more powerful, important and complex the brand messages you are trying to convey, the more important it is that you do so by telling a compelling but simple, - i.e., understandable, - story.

Good storytelling is particularly important when introducing a complex and potentially disruptive offering in the marketplace whose value is not well understood.  It’s a natural way of explaining what the new innovation is all about.  As a concrete example, let me share my experiences with the development of IBM’s Internet and e-business strategy in the mid-late 1990s.

The Internet, Blockchain, and the Evolution of Foundational Innovations

Last year, a panel of global experts convened by the World Economic Forum selected blockchain as one of the Top Ten Emerging Technologies for 2016, based on its potential to fundamentally change the way economies work.  But, how transformative will blockchain turn out to be?  How long is the transformation likely to take?  And how will it compare with the Internet-based transformation of the past few decades?

These questions were nicely addressed in The Truth about Blockchain, a recent Harvard Business Review article by Harvard professors Marco Iansiti and Karim Lakhani.  Their article starts off with one of the best descriptions I’ve seen of the long-term promise of blockchain.

“Contracts, transactions, and the records of them are among the defining structures in our economic, legal, and political systems.  They protect assets and set organizational boundaries.  They establish and verify identities and chronicle events.  They govern interactions among nations, organizations, communities, and individuals.  They guide managerial and social action.  And yet these critical tools and the bureaucracies formed to manage them have not kept up with the economy’s digital transformation.  They’re like a rush-hour gridlock trapping a Formula 1 race car.  In a digital world, the way we regulate and maintain administrative control has to change…”

“With blockchain, we can imagine a world in which contracts are embedded in digital code and stored in transparent, shared databases, where they are protected from deletion, tampering, and revision.  In this world every agreement, every process, every task, and every payment would have a digital record and signature that could be identified, validated, stored, and shared.  Intermediaries like lawyers, brokers, and bankers might no longer be necessary.  Individuals, organizations, machines, and algorithms would freely transact and interact with one another with little friction.”

Towards a Trusted Framework for Identity and Data Sharing

I recently participated in a Treasury Identity Forum organized by the US Treasury Department in Washington, DC.  The Forum focused “on the critical role of legal identity for financial inclusion, economic development, and anti-money laundering/counter financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) safeguards, and the development of new technology identification/authentication solutions to help achieve these goals.”  It brought together stakeholders from governments, financial service companies, FinTech startups and technologists to better understand how emerging technologies and legal frameworks can help us develop the required digital identity systems.

I was a member of a panel on how government, business and research communities can collaborate in developing workable identity solutions.  Let me summarize the points I made in my introductory remarks.

From time immemorial, our identity systems have been based on face-to-face interactions and on physical documents and processes.  But, the transition to a digital economy requires radically different identity systems.  As the economy and society move toward a world where interactions are primarily governed by digital data and transactions, our existing methods of managing identity and data security are proving inadequate.  Large-scale fraud, identity theft and data breaches are becoming common, and a large fraction of the world’s population lacks the credentials needed to be part of the digital economy.

Blockchains: the Promise of More Frictionless, Trusted Economies

Why do firms exist?  Ronald Coase, - the eminent British economist and University of Chicago professor, - addressed this question in The Nature of the Firm, - a seminal paper published in 1937 which along with other major achievements earned him the 1991 Nobel Prize in economics.

Professor Coase explained that, in principle, a firm should be able to find the cheapest, most productive, highest quality goods and services by contracting them out in an efficient, open marketplace.  However, markets are not perfectly fluid.  Transaction costs are a kind of friction incurred in obtaining goods and services outside the firm, such as searching for the right supply chain partners, establishing a trusted relationship, negotiating a contract, coordinating the work, managing intellectual property and so on.  Firms came into being to make it easier and less costly to get work done.

A recent IBM report, - Fast forward: Rethinking enterprises, ecosystems and economies with blockchains, - harks back to Coase’s paper to analyze the potential value of blockchains.  The report notes that while transaction costs are lower within firms, “in recent years as enterprises have scaled, the added complexity of operations has grown exponentially while revenue growth has remained linear.  The result?  At a certain point, organizations are faced with diminishing returns.  Blockchains have the potential to eradicate the cost of complexity and ultimately redefine the traditional boundaries of an organization.”

Blockchain Can Reshape Financial Services… But it Will Take Significant Time and Investment

In early August, the World Economic Forum (WEF) published two excellent reports: A Blueprint for Digital Identity, - which I wrote about a few weeks ago, - and The future of financial infrastructure: An ambitious look at how blockchain can reshape financial services, - which I’d now like to discuss.

“Distributed ledger technology (DLT), more commonly called blockchain, has captured the imaginations, and wallets, of the financial services ecosystem,” notes the report, citing a few statistics as evidence: over 90 central banks are engaged in DLT discussions around the world; more than 24 countries have already launched blockchain-based initiatives; 80% of banks predict that they’ll launch blockchain projects by 2017; over 90 financial and technology companies have already joined blockchain consortia; over the past 3 years; more than 2,500 patents have been filed; and $1.4 billion has been invested in blockchain-based startups over the same time span.

In addition, a panel of global experts convened by the WEF selected blockchain as one of the Top Ten Emerging Technologies for 2016 because of its potential to fundamentally change the way markets and governments work, - further evidence that blockchain is reaching a tipping point of market acceptance.

But, significant hurdles must be overcome before the advent of large-scale blockchain infrastructures.  The WEF correctly warns that this will take time.  Not only are there major technology and standards issues to be worked out, but the industry will have to collaborate with governments around the world to develop the appropriate legal frameworks and regulatory environments.

Digital Identity - the Key to Privacy and Security in the Digital World

From time immemorial, our identity systems have been based on face-to-face interactions and on physical documents and processes.  But, the transition to a digital economy requires radically different identity systems.  In a world that’s increasingly governed by digital transactions and data, our existing methods for managing security and privacy are no longer adequate.  Data breaches, identity theft and large-scale fraud are becoming more common.  In addition, a significant portion of the world’s population lacks the necessary digital credentials to fully participate in the digital economy.

Last month, the World Economic Forum (WEF) published an excellent report, A Blueprint for Digital Identity.  The report lays out a framework for the creation of digital identity systems, discusses the benefits that these systems would bring to its various stakeholders, and argues that financial institutions should lead their development.  It also includes a primer on identity, which clearly explains what identity is all about.

Identity plays a major role in everyday life.  Think about going to an office, getting on a plane, logging to a website or making an online purchase.  While all around us, we generally don’t pay much attention to our identity credentials unless something goes wrong.  But, it’s a highly complex and interesting subject, which the report helped me better understand.  Let me summarize some of what I learned.

“Why is identity important?,” the primer starts out by asking.  “In an increasingly borderless and digital world, privacy and security cannot be ensured through the construction of walls around sensitive information.  Identity is the new frontier of privacy and security, where the very nature of entities is what allows them to complete some transactions but be denied from completing others.  To understand the importance of identity and the criticality of strong identity protocols that protect against cyber-risk and suit the needs of transacting parties, it is essential to understand what identity is, and its role in enabling transactions.”

Blockchain - Once Again, the Technological Genie Has Been Unleashed from its Bottle

Skeptics needing further reassurance that the Blockchain is truly reaching a tipping point can rest easier with the recent publication of Don Tapscott’s Blockchain Revolution, co-written with his son Alex.  Don, whom I’ve long known, has a knack for identifying what The Next Big Thing will likely be, and shortly thereafter writing a book to explain it to everybody else.  The Digital Economy, written in the mid 1990s, anticipated the unbundling of vertically integrated companies into business webs, giving rise to the open networked enterprise.  His 2006 Wikinomics predicted the rise of mass collaboration in what became known a few years later as the On Demand Economy.  Blockchain Revolution, his 16th book, now explains “How The Blockchain Will Transform Everything From Banking To Government To Our Identities.”

The book is organized into three main sections.  The first explains the blockchain from two complementary points of view: as a major next step in the evolution of the Internet; and as the architecture underpinning bitcoin, the best known and most widely held digital currency.  The second and longest section describes how blockchain could potentially transform financial services, companies, government, the Internet of Things, and other key areas.  The last section summarizes the major challenges that must be overcome as well as the governance required to fulfill the promise of blockchain.

“It appears that once again, the technological genie has been unleashed from its bottle,” write the authors in their opening paragraph.  “Summoned by an unknown person or persons with unclear motives, at an uncertain time in history, the genie is now at our service for another kick of the can - to transform the economic power grid and the old order of human affairs for the better.  If we will it.”