Irving Wladawsky-Berger

Business as a Complex, Continuously Evolving System

Advances in science and engineering have enabled us to understand increasingly complex natural systems like those in physics, chemistry and biology.  Some of them, e.g., the solar system, are relatively simple and predictable.  However, a common thread across all of these disciplines -- and many areas of knowledge over the past half-century -- has been the understanding that such systems, while composed of large numbers of relatively simple components, frequently exhibit very complex overall behavior.  Rather than seeing the universe as a mechanistic, deterministic, Newtonian clockwork, we now understand that most complex systems in nature are highly dynamic, and while their components might be simple, the fact that they are interconnected and continually changing makes their behavior essentially “emergent”, i.e., unpredictable.  Turbulent weather, chemical reactions and most systems in biology are examples of such complex natural systems.   

With complex man-made or engineered systems, we can also translate our increased understanding into better designs through the development of improved tools, processes, analytical techniques, simulations and similar methodologies.  For example, in the last hundred years we have made major progress in the engineering of physical objects like bridges, skyscrapers, automobiles and airplanes.  Similarly, we have seen the designs of computers and their components improve significantly in the last twenty years, including microprocessors, PCs, servers, networks and software of all sorts. 

Reflections on Blogging - One Year Later

I started this blog in May of last year, and posted my personal reflections on blogging three months later in August, and then again at the end of the year in December.  As I have been at this now for one year, it is time once more to add to my personal reflections on blogging.

Let me start by looking at the state of the blogosphere through the lens of some information recently posted by David Sifri, founder and CEO of Technorati.  In a two part entry in his blog, Sifry commented on the health of the blogosphere.  In Part 1 he observed that Technorati now tracks over 37 million blogs, with the number doubling in size every 6 months.  Over 50 percent of the bloggers, close to 20 million people, are still posting 3 months after they started their blogs and almost 4 million of them update their blogs at least weekly.  Sifry then added in Part 2 that the blogosphere is becoming increasingly multilingual and international and, while English was the language of choice for the majority of the early bloggers, it now represents less than one third of all blogs.  Japanese and Chinese language blogging has been increasing fast, and so probably is Korean, since Sifry believes that Technorati is currently seriously undercounting the number of Korean blogs. 

Collaborative Innovation and The Humble Corporation

Just about every study on innovation identifies the power of collaboration and communities as one of the major forces driving innovation in today's environment.  For example, in our own such studies in IBM, a major conclusion of the 2004 Global Innovation Outlook (GIO1.0) was that innovation is increasingly collaborative and open, as more and more, it results from people working together in new and integrated ways.  Specifically, the report noted that ". . .  close cooperation across an ecosystem will stimulate new business designs, as companies redefine what they do and what they rely on others to do."  The GIO 2.0 report which came out earlier this year identified the power of networks, i.e., communities, as one of its top findings, as individuals told us that increasingly "their power comes largely from their ability to tap into and sometimes transform a larger network of people and ideas." 

Similarly, in the 2006 CEO study that was released this past March one of the key themes that emerged from the CEO interviews was that external collaboration is indispensable for innovation, with customers and business partners cited as top sources of innovative ideas.  In today's fast-moving and highly competitive world, more and more businesses recognize that there exist a lot more capabilities for innovation in the marketplace than they could try to create on their own, no matter how big and powerful the company. 

Jobs, Skills and New Disciplines in a Global, Competitive World

There is an ongoing debate in the US and other advanced economies as to whether the study of science and engineering will continue to lead to good, well paying careers, or whether such jobs will largely be outsourced to countries with lower labor costs, thus significantly depressing their wages in developed economies in order to remain competitive.  This raises a few important questions.  In an increasingly global, competitive world, where advanced knowledge is widespread and low-cost labor readily available, will there be enough good technical jobs in the US for graduates with science and engineering degrees?  As parents, should we encourage our children to pursue careers in science and engineering, or steer them toward other careers in which they might enjoy higher pay and a higher standard of living?  What is the proper role of universities in developing new educational programs to better prepare their graduates for the good technical jobs of the future?      

It does seem paradoxical that, at the same time that we talk about transitioning to a knowledge-based economy where technical talent will be of critical importance to the competitiveness of businesses and nations, we have such doubts about the future of technically-based jobs.  A major part of the doubt is due to the perceived wholesale migration of technical jobs to other countries.  In the past, the US has successfully reinvented its economy several times and created new jobs to replace those no longer viable, but there are fears that this time around we will not be able to continue as an innovation leader given the highly competitive global environment we live in.  There is a foreboding in the air that perhaps we've lost it.

Skills, Jobs, Competitiveness and Innovation

I was recently in Washington, D.C., where I participated in a Symposium on the "Globalization of Innovation: Industry Trends and Professional Workforce Implications" sponsored by the Board on Science, Technology and Economy Policy  of the National Academies.  I gave a talk on "Skill Requirements for Innovation in the 21st Century", a subject that I have been thinking a lot about in recent years, but especially in the last few months.

The key question on everyone's mind is whether the nations and businesses that are leaders today will continue to be leaders tomorrow, given all the changes taking place around the world.  In particular, there are serious concerns as to whether the US will continue to be an innovation leader in the 21st century.